NHL Picks Red Wings +100 over Maple Leaves

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, December 21, 2013 4:01 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 21, 2013 4:01 PM GMT

The Leafs host the Red Wings on Saturday at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada with the opening faceoff slated for 7:05 PM ET. Let's see what the odds hold and where we can find our NHL pick.

According to NHL betting odds Toronto is a -120 money line home favorite and the posted total is 5.5. The home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these clubs, including Toronto winning the last 4 versus Detroit at the Air Canada Centre. Detroit is currently 4th in the Atlantic Division just 2-points ahead of 5th place Toronto. The Red Wings are tied with Washington for 5th overall in the Eastern Conference. Toronto enters tonight 7th overall in the Eastern Conference.

Road Warriors

Detroit has been one of the best road teams in the NHL this season. They’ve lost just 3 of their 16 road games in regulation time, and have earned 23 of 32-points possible in those contests. Unfortunately they’ve been horrible at home winning just 6 of 21-games in regulation time this season at Joe Louis Arena. However, they were able to snap a 5-game home losing streak in their previous game, defeating the Calgary Flames 3-2 in an overtime shootout on Thursday.

Inside the Red Wings Numbers

  • The Red Wings are 1-6 in their last 7-games versus the money line.
  • The Red Wings have gone over the total in 8 of their last 11-games following a win.
  • The Red Wings have gone under the total in their last 6-games versus an Eastern Conference opponent.
  • The Red Wins have gone over the total in just 12 of their last 54-games on the road, versus an opponent with a winning home record.

Leafs Defensive Woes

Toronto has gone just 4-10 in their last 14-games versus the money line. It doesn’t take a NASA engineer to decipher what their biggest flaw has been over the last month. They’ve allowed 3-goals or more in 7 of their last 8, and 12 of their last 14-games. The Leafs have also scored 2-goals or less in 11 of their last 16-games. When you combine those 2 factors, the results are almost sure, not to be favorable.

NHL Picks: Saturday Picks of the Day

Grueling Schedule of Late

Tonight will be the Leafs 4th game in 6-days, and their 7th in the last 12-days. Toronto is just 1-5 in their last 6 when playing their 4th game in 6-days. Toronto has been anemic offensively in the last 3-games scoring just 3-goals combined in regulation time. All 3 of those games have gone under the total set by sportsbooks.

Inside the Leafs Numbers

  • The Leafs have gone 2-7 in their last 9 following a game in which they scored 2-goals or less.
  • The Leafs are a dismal 1-7 in their last 8-games versus an Eastern Conference opponent.
  • The Leafs have gone over the total in their last 4 following a game that they allowed 2-goals or less.
  • The Leafs have gone over the total in 5 of their last 6-games versus an opponent with a losing record versus the money line.
  • The Leafs have gone under the total in just 15 of their last 51-games versus an Atlantic Division opponent.

Final Analysis

The Leafs are a tired team right now that’s struggling defensively. As opposed to the first month and a half of the season when the goaltending of Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer bailed them out on numerous occasions, neither has been able to do so in any type of consistent manner over the last 6 weeks. The Red Wings are playing with a ton of confidence on the road this season, which makes the underdog price too enticing to pass up. My NHL pick here is with the road underdog.

Free Pick: Detroit +100 over Toronto

[gameodds]7/250836/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

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