NHL Picks: Predators vs. Canadiens Odds Analysis

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, October 19, 2013 1:56 PM GMT

The Montreal Canadians host the Nashville Predators on Saturday with the opening faceoff at 7:05 ET. Let's look at the betting odds for our free picks.

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Saturday 10/19/2013

Nashville Predators (3-4) @ Montreal Canadians (5-2)

The Montreal Canadians host the Nashville Predators on Saturday with the opening faceoff at 7:05 ET. According to current NHL betting odds the Canadians are a -170 money line favorite and the total is posted at 5.0. The last 4 times these teams have met the game has gone under the total.

Go Habs Go!

The Canadians enter tonight having won 4 in a row and come off a 5-3 home win over Columbus. Cary Price continued his strong play in goal for the Canadians stopping 30 of 33 Columbus shots on goal. Price is now 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a 1.33 GAA and a super .963 save percentage. During the current 4-game win streak the Canadians have outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 16-5. Star defensemen P.K. Subban is off to a terrific start to the season leading the team in scoring with 10-points on 2-goals and 8-assists. This is the 2nd game of a 5-game home stand for the Canadians. Following tonight’s game they will host the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday. Montreal enters tonight 4th in the NHL with an average of 3.6 goals per game. They are also 4th in the league allowing an average of just 1.9 goals per contest. Montreal has gone under the total in their last 5-games versus Western Conference opponents. The Canadians have gone over the total in just 17 of their last 63-games played on a Saturday. Carey Price is scheduled to be in goal again tonight for Montreal.

Music City Road Woes

The Nashville Predators come off a 5-game home stand that saw them go 3-2. The Predators futility on the road is well documented in NHL circles. Nashville began this season with 2 road losses at St. Louis and Colorado. They’re now a dismal 5-24 in their last 29 road games. The Predators were beaten by the Los Angeles Kings 2-1 in an overtime shootout at home on Thursday. Pekka Rinne is scheduled to be in goal tonight for the Predators. Rinne has started all 7-games for the Predators this season and has been average at best with a 2.73 GAA in addition to a .901 save percentage. The Predators have really struggled to generate a lot of offense in the early going. They’re 26th in the NHL in scoring averaging a mere 2.0 goals per game. Besides struggling on the road the Predators are an awful 6-20 in their last 26 versus opponents with a winning record, and dating back to last season they’ve gone 8-21 in the last 29-games overall. The Predators have gone over the total just once in their last 13-games played on a Saturday.

Check out the Maple Leafs and Blackhawks~

Final Analysis

Although Montreal appears to be the obvious selection in this game there’s no way I’m willing to lay -170 on the money line. When assessing the chances of the Predators it would be extremely difficult to make a case for them considering their severe struggles on the road in the past 2 seasons. I can make a case for the under with both teams histories indicating a higher probability for the game to be played on the lower side.

Here are a couple of NHL totals systems that support my position on this games going under.

  • Any home team with a total of 5.0 or less that scored 5 or more goals in their previous game, versus an opponent coming off a game where there was a combined 3-goals or less scored has seen 21 of those 26 games (80.8%) go under the total in the last 5 seasons.
  • Any road team with a total of 5.0 or less that scored 1-goal or less in their previous game, versus an opponent t that scored 5-goals or more in their previous game has seen 24 of those 31 (77.4%) go under the total in the last 5 season.

Free Pick: Nashville/Montreal to go under 5.0

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