Going Totally 'Over' Board On An NHL Wednesday

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 12:53 AM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 13, 2019 12:53 AM UTC

Just three tilts in midweek action and we on hopping on the 'Over' train! Our first stop will be in Toronto and the next also in Canada, is in Vancouver. All Aboard!

Scoreboard Operator Kept Very Busy in Toronto

Chicago (46-19-4 Over) at Toronto (34-31-4 Over)
Wednesday, 7:05 pm ET (NBCSN)
Free NHL Pick: Over
Best Line Offered: Bovada

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On Monday night, the Chicago Blackhawks got back to what they do best, play high-scoring games, crushing Arizona 7-1. That made Chicago an unfathomable 23-2-1 OVER in the last 26 outings.

Toronto returned home for what was thought to be a big game after a three-city trip in their home country. Let's face it, why wouldn't the Maple Leafs be jacked to take on Tampa Bay to possibly send a message for later in the playoffs, hey, we are pretty good too and you just don't skate in here and walk away easily. The Toronto fans may have thought that, but the best team in the NHL had other ideas and dismantled the Leafs 6-2 in their own building.

Though the Blackhawks have only allowed two goals in their last two games, nobody is buying Chicago's 30th ranked defense and turned a corner those setting the NHL odds have made this matchup of Original Six squads a total of 7.

The Hawks defense and No.9 offense are very capable of making this a high-scoring affair. Toronto definitely has the players to fill the net against Chicago's defensive shortcomings, ranked third in the league in scoring.

A closer inspection of the numbers provides us with what we need for NHL picks. Besides the ginormous run Chicago is on for Over's, they are also 19-5 Over after scoring four goals or more in their previous game and 16-0 Over against teams allowing 2.85+ goals a game. Toronto also has something to add with a 15-5 Over mark after permitting five or more goals.

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.@Bubzp11 is the first player to score a hat trick in his first regular-season game against his former team since Joe Corvo on March 16, 2008!

(via @PR_NHL) pic.twitter.com/6pMtKSuSw4

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) 12 de março de 2019
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It's All About The System

N.Y. Rangers (34-32-3 Over) at Vancouver (36-29-4 Under)
Wednesday, 10:05 pm ET (ESPN+)
Free NHL Pick: Over
Best Line Offered: Bovada

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If you have read the free pick in this part of the article, you are thinking, dude, are you kidding me! The New York Rangers are 22nd in goals scored and Vancouver is 27th, where are the goals going to come from to beat the total of 5.5?

It is understood more than one of you might have reservations about how we get to six goals, in light of the last encounter a 2-1 winner for the Blueshirts at MSG. But that was four months a day ago, which in hockey time is...., well, a long time ago. To properly place that into perspective, Detroit was in the midst of a good start to the season back then.

There is an inordinate number of ways to handicap hockey games and totals and one this particular handicapper looks for is system plays. That is not to say every single one of them, preferring to keep at those at 80 percent or higher over at least a five-year period. With that is mind here is what we are talking about.

When the total is 5.5 and road team (Rangers) has played four or more consecutive Under's, in a game involving two teams scoring 2.5 to 2.9 goals a game, the Over is 29-7 the last five seasons.

Let's back that up with the Canucks 12-4 Over when playing with revenge and 8-1 Over off a home loss by two or more goals. Doesn't this make more sense now?

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