NHL Picks: Money Line Underdog Shocker on Oilers Over Canadiens

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 29, 2015 4:30 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015 4:30 PM UTC

Join us in reading this insightful piece that concludes with NHL pick on Thursday’s NHL game between Montreal Canadiens and Edmonton Oilers, lets review the NHL betting odds first.

NHL Eastern versus Western Canada Battle on Thursday
The Oilers and Canadiens collide on Thursday in what will be the first of two meetings between these teams this season. The opening faceoff at Rexall Place in Edmonton is slated for 9:05 PM ET. NHL odds at Heritage show Montreal as a -143 money line favorite and the posted total to be 5.0. You may be surprised to know that Edmonton defeated Montreal in both of their meetings last season, and outscored them by a cumulative margin of 7-3.


Record Start comes to an End
During the long and glorious history of the Montreal Canadiens franchise, they had never begun a season better than 4-0. This year’s team not only surpassed that mark, they did so by a substantial margin. The Canadiens got off to an excellent 9-0 start to this 2015-2016 NHL campaign. Well that all came to an end on Tuesday in Vancouver. The Canucks came away with a convincing 5-1 victory over Montreal. There was no would’ve, could’ve, or should’ve regarding excuses for Montreal’s loss. They fell behind 3-0 after one period, and were never able to get back into the game from that point on. In addition, all world goaltender Carey Price actually looked mortal for the first time in eight starts, allowing 5 goals on just 28 shots on net.


Encouraging Signs
The Edmonton Oilers have been perennial Western Conference bottom feeders for the past decade. Although losing seven of their first ten games doesn’t lend itself to believe that trend is changing anytime soon. They’ve certainly passed my eye test in terms of obvious improvement. One thing that’s been crystal clear, 18 year old first overall draft pick Connor McDavid has been the real deal for Edmonton. The youngster has 5 goals and 5 assists in his first ten NHL games, and is tied for 13th in the league point scoring race. The Oilers enter tonight having averaged better than 3 goals per game during its last six outings.


NHL Money Line Betting Angle
Any home team (Edmonton) with a money line winning percentage of .300 to .400, versus an opponent with a money line winning percentage of .700 or better, and that opponent (Montreal) has won two of their previous three games, resulted in the home team going 60-37 (61.2%) since 1996. This betting algorithm provides even more value when considering that the home team in those games had an average money line price of +124.7. When there’s no risk then there’s no reward, I’m going with the home underdog to pull off a surprising win tonight for one of my NHL picks.

NHL Pick: Oilers +133 at Heritage

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