NHL Picks: Monday Picks of the Day

Ross Benjamin

Monday, December 23, 2013 1:34 PM GMT

Monday, Dec. 23, 2013 1:34 PM GMT

Monday’s NHL card is a full one with 14 games on the schedule. We’ve got picks and previews of two of them here at SBR. Let's take a look at the odds and find our value in these NHL picks.


New York Islanders @ Detroit Red Wings 7:35 PM ET

Detroit comes off 2 consecutive 1-goal wins over Calgary 3-2, and in their previous game at Toronto 5-4. Detroit has seen 8 of their 9-games go under the total in the last 3 seasons, following 2 straight wins by 1-goal apiece. The Red Wings have also gone under the total in 11 of 14-games the last 3-seasons, following a game in which 8-goals or more combined were scored. They will be facing an Islander team which has played a demanding schedule over the last 2 weeks. All of the above factors are consistent with a very profitable NHL betting system.

NHL Betting System

Any home team with a total of 5.5 that comes off a division 1-goal win in their previous game, versus an opponent that’s playing their 8th or more game in the last 14-days, has seen 37 of those 50-games (74%) go under the total since the beginning of the 1997-1998 season.

Free Pick: Islanders/Red Wings to go under the total of 5.5

[gameodds]7/251042/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

 

St. Louis Blues @ Calgary Flames 9:05 PM ET

The old adage in sports wagering is that if it looks too good to be true, then most of the time it is. This looks like a total mismatch on paper. One team (St. Louis) is hot, and the other is not (Calgary). In addition the Blues have 20-points more in the NHL standings than the Flames, and we haven’t even completed half the season yet. Despite this data overwhelmingly supporting the Blues, they’re just a -155 money line favorite. This looks like a trap if there ever was one.

St. Louis is coming off a pair of decisive wins. They defeated Montreal 5-1 at home on Thursday, and then crushed Edmonton 6-0 on the road. The Flames last 2-games saw them lose 3-2 at Detroit on Thursday, and drop a 4-3 decision at Pittsburgh on Saturday. This creates a solid NHL betting system.

NHL Betting System

Any home team which has allowed 3-goals or more in their last 2-games, versus an opponent who won their previous 2-games each by 3-goals or more, has gone 28-14 (66.7%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 2009-2010 season. We'll add Calgary to our NHL picks.

Free Pick: Calgary +135 over St. Louis

[gameodds]7/251047/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]
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