NHL Picks for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: Not Worth Watching but Worth a Wager!

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, April 1, 2015 12:29 PM GMT

Our resident NHL handicapper shares his top total of the night in this abbreviated four game schedule on Wednesday. Read his highly informative betting preview article on this contest, concluding with a NHL totals angle that has won 74.4% of the time during the past nineteen seasons.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres 7:35 PM ET
The NHL betting odds at 5Dimes has a posted total of 5.5 in this contest. This will be the fourth meeting of the season between these Atlantic Division rivals, and two of the first three have gone over the total.

There’s been a drastic difference in offensive production on the road compared to at home for the Toronto Maple Leafs during this 2014-2015 NHL campaign. They average a very good 3.1 goals per game at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, and just 2.0 goals per contest on the road. As a matter of fact, Toronto has seen just 36.8% of their road games go over the total this season. The Leafs are listing Jonathan Bernier as their probable starting goaltender tonight. Bernier has seen fifteen of his twenty-two starts (68.2%) on the road go under the total.

Although the Buffalo Sabres have been scoring goals with regularity recently, they still are averaging a NHL worst 1.9 goals per game this season. Anders Lindback is slated to be in goal for the Sabres on Wednesday. Lindback has been solid in seven starts for Buffalo since coming over in a trade from the Dallas Stars, posting a very good .921 save percentage, and five of the seven went under the total. The Sabres have gone under the number in nine of their previous twelve games at home.

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NHL Totals Angle
I’ve already alluded to the fact that the Sabres are averaging a paltry 1.9 goals per game this season. However, they’ve scored three goals or more in each of their previous four games. The combination of those two pieces of data qualifies for a very profitable totals system that I’ll use when making my NHL picks on Wednesday.

Any home team (Buffalo) that averages 2.4 goals or less per game, and they’ve scored three goals or more in each of their previous three games, has seen 32 of those 43-games (74.4%) stay under the total since the beginning of the 1996-1997 NHL campaign.

NHL Pick: Play on Toronto and Buffalo to go under the total of 5.5 at 5Dimes

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