NHL Picks: Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Rematch at "The Joe"

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, October 18, 2014 2:51 PM GMT

There’s a full slate of games in the NHL tonight, and join us in reading an informative betting preview on the game between Toronto/Detroit which includes a money line free pick.

Battle in the Atlantic
The Red Wings will host the Maple Leafs tonight at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit with the opening face-off slated for 7:05 PM ET. According to the NHL betting odds at Pinnacle, the Red Wings are a -145 money line favorite. Bovada has the total in this game posted at 5.5. These NHL Atlantic Division rivals played in Toronto last night, and the Red Wings defeated the Leafs 4-1.

 

Recent Series History
The Red Wings have won the last 3, and 5 of the last 7 meeting between these teams. The last 7 times these Atlantic Division teams have battled, they’ve gone over the total 4-times, under on 2 occasions, and there was a push on the other occasion.

Date

Road

Line

HML

Total

RML

HS

RS

ATSwinner

SUwinner

O/U

10-17-2014

DETROIT

-1.5

-120

5.5

100

1

4

DETROIT

DETROIT

U

03-29-2014

DETROIT

-1.5

-130

5.5

110

2

4

DETROIT

DETROIT

O

03-18-2014

TORONTO

-1.5

-135

5.5

115

3

2

TORONTO

DETROIT

U

01-01-2014

TORONTO

-1.5

-130

5

110

2

3

TORONTO

TORONTO

T

12-21-2013

DETROIT

-1.5

-120

5.5

100

4

5

DETROIT

DETROIT

O

01-07-2012

DETROIT

1.5

130

5.5

-150

4

3

TORONTO

TORONTO

O

03-26-2011

TORONTO

-1.5

-185

5.5

165

4

2

DETROIT

DETROIT

O

 

The Road has been Unkind
If you’ve been using the Maple Leafs as one of your NHL picks over the past 7-months, it certainly has cost you quite a bit of money. Toronto was able to break a 7-game losing streak on the road dating back to last season with their 6-3 win over the Rangers last Sunday.

Date

Home

Road

Line

HML

Total

RML

HS

RS

ATSwinner

SUwinner

O/U

2014-10-12

Rangers

Leafs

-1.5

-165

5

145

3

6

Leafs

Leafs

O

 

The Leafs road futilities extend back even further as they’ve dropped 13 of their last 18 away games.

Date

Home

Away

Puck Line

ML

Total

ML

HS

RS

ATS Winner

SU Winner

O/U

2014-01-23

DALLAS

TORONTO

-1.5

-140

5.5

120

7

1

DALLAS

DALLAS

O

2014-01-25

WINNIPEG

TORONTO

-1.5

-135

5.5

115

5

4

TORONTO

WINNIPEG

O

2014-02-04

FLORIDA

TORONTO

1.5

100

5.5

-120

4

1

FLORIDA

FLORIDA

U

2014-02-06

TAMPA BAY

TORONTO

-1.5

-160

5.5

140

1

4

TORONTO

TORONTO

U

2014-02-27

NY ISLANDERS

TORONTO

1.5

-105

5.5

-115

5

4

NY ISLANDERS

NY ISLANDERS

O

2014-03-01

MONTREAL

TORONTO

-1.5

-130

5.5

110

4

3

TORONTO

MONTREAL

O

2014-03-05

NY RANGERS

TORONTO

-1.5

-165

5.5

145

2

3

TORONTO

TORONTO

U

2014-03-10

ANAHEIM

TORONTO

-1.5

-185

5.5

165

1

3

TORONTO

TORONTO

U

2014-03-11

SAN JOSE

TORONTO

-1.5

-235

5.5

195

6

2

SAN JOSE

SAN JOSE

O

2014-03-13

LOS ANGELES

TORONTO

-1.5

-200

5.5

170

2

3

TORONTO

TORONTO

U

2014-03-16

WASHINGTON

TORONTO

-1.5

-140

5.5

120

4

2

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON

O

2014-03-18

DETROIT

TORONTO

-1.5

-135

5.5

115

3

2

TORONTO

DETROIT

U

2014-03-23

NEW JERSEY

TORONTO

-1.5

-130

5.5

110

3

2

TORONTO

NEW JERSEY

U

2014-03-28

PHILADELPHIA

TORONTO

-1.5

-160

5.5

140

4

2

PHILADELPHIA

PHILADELPHIA

O

2014-04-08

TAMPA BAY

TORONTO

-1.5

-185

5.5

165

3

0

TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY

U

2014-04-10

FLORIDA

TORONTO

-1.5

-110

5.5

-110

4

2

FLORIDA

FLORIDA

O

2014-04-12

OTTAWA

TORONTO

-1.5

-140

5.5

120

1

0

TORONTO

OTTAWA

U

2014-10-12

NY RANGERS

TORONTO

-1.5

-165

5

145

3

6

TORONTO

TORONTO

O

 

The Leafs defensive play is certainly been of concern. They’re giving up an average of 3.6 goals per outing in the first 5-games of the year. Opponents have averaged 34-shots on goal per game versus the Leafs in the early part of the schedule. On a more positive note, Toronto has converted on 26.3% of their power play opportunities, and is averaging 3-goals per game which is more than respectable.

 

Rare Offensive Explosion for the Wings
After scoring just 2-goals in each of their first 3-games, Detroit came up with a huge offensive effort by their standards in last night’s 4-1 win. In addition to the 4-goals, the Red Wings were able to amass a season high 35-shots on goal. In an unrelated subject, Jimmy Howard was once again outstanding last night by stopping 23 of 24-shots on goal by Toronto. Howard has started each of the first 4-games for Detroit, posted an excellent 1.72 GAA, and a superb .934 save percentage. If you’re NHL betting has included going under the total in all four Red Wings games this season, you’ve cashed winning tickets 3-times, and received your money back on the other occasion due to a push.

 

Final Analysis
I look for the Maple Leafs to even the score tonight in this Atlantic Division rematch of last night’s game at the Air Canada Center. It’s a “Go Leafs Go” kind of a night! My betting edge in regard to your NHL pick on this game tonight lies with the road underdog.

Free NHL Pick: Toronto +125 over Detroit

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