NHL Picks: Lightning vs. Sabres Odds Analysis

PJ Laferla

Sunday, April 14, 2013 4:42 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 14, 2013 4:42 PM UTC

When you think of high-profile matchups in the NHL, the Lightning versus the Sabres wouldn’t be the first one that comes to mind, but there is value on the odds boards here.

NHL Betting

The Tampa Bay Lighting (17-21-3) will attempt to snap a two game skid tonight when they face the last place Buffalo Sabres (17-19-6), in a matchup of teams that have become irrelevant by many across the league.

Game time in this one is set for 5:00 PM EST and will take place at the First Niagara Center in Buffalo, New York. Local broadcast coverage will be provided by Sun Sports.

Several online sportsbooks, including Bookmaker have listed the home team as -125 favorites on the money line, while posting a total of 5 1/2 goals with a price of -115 on the over. Have the NHL odd been left  open in this game?

Let's breakdown the matchup further and determine where bettors can find the best value with their NHL picks.

The Lightning boast the third best offense in the league, averaging 3.2 goals scored per game. However, their problems stem on defense, as their points against average of 3.1 ranks 27th in the NHL.

They are notoriously known as a bad road team, winning just 19 of their last 64 games played on the highway. This year they have only notched six road victories all season.

Tampa Bay is 0-4 in their last four games played on a Sunday and 1-4 in their last five versus Eastern Conference opponents. They have gone over the posted total in 22 of their last 32 games played on the road.

The Sabres are in the bottom half of the league on offense and defense. Their average of 2.6 goals per game is rated 19th in the NHL; and the 3.0 goals per game allowed ranks 24th best.


Buffalo has failed to capitalize against bad teams, going just 5-16 in their last 21 versus a club with a losing record. They have also had little success against Southeast Division opponents, winning just 5 of the last 23 against those teams.

The Sabres are 5-2-1 over in their last eight games played at home, but 3-1-1 under in their last five that follow a win.

Buffalo is 37-17-3 in the last 57 meetings against Tampa Bay and 8 of the last 10 on the Sabres home ice have gone over the posted total.

NHL Pick: Go Over 5 1/2 Goals -115 at Bookmaker


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