NHL Picks: Islanders vs. Senators

David Lawrence

Friday, November 1, 2013 12:14 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 1, 2013 12:14 PM UTC

The Ottawa Senators host the New York Islanders at the Canadian Tire Centre on Friday with the opening faceoff coming at 7:35 PM ET. Find out why we have focused our NHL picks on this game's betting total.

According to NHL odds Ottawa is a -140 money line home favorite and the posted total is 5.5. These two clubs have seen 7 of their last 10 meetings go over the total.


All in on the Island

The Islanders brass displayed their confidence in the potential of this year’s team when they traded Matt Moulson to Buffalo for two time 40-goal scorer Thomas Vanek. The first game following the trade produced a disappointing result as the Isles fell at home to the Rangers 3-2. They led 2-1 entering the 3rd period and subsequently allowed the Rangers to rally for the win. The Islanders have now lost their last 2, 4 of the last 5, and 7 of the last 9. The Islanders have seen 10 of their first 12-games this season be decided by 1-goal. The Islanders power play has been awesome thus far converting on 25.6% of their chances. Evgeni Nabokov has to be better in goal. The veteran posted a very average 2.84 GAA and a .906 save percentage.

The Struggling Senators

After putting together a surprising season a year ago that saw them qualify for the playoffs, then upset Montreal in the first round, the Senators have stumbled out of the gate to a 4-8 record. In their last game on Tuesday night they lost a thriller at Chicago 6-5 to the defending Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks. After jumping out to a 4-2 lead in the 2nd period they allowed Chicago to score 4 unanswered goals. They cut the lead to 6-5 on a goal by Zack Smith with 5:37 left to play but failed to get the equalizer. They enter tonight on a 3-game losing streak. Starting with tonight, Ottawa will play 7 of their next 8-games at home. They’re just 1-3 at home to start the season.

Final Analysis

This is one of those contrarian moments for me. Based on these teams recent play, this has all the earmarks of a high scoring game. Which is exactly why I am going to lean toward the under. Below is a very strong totals technical system that supports my NHL picks.

Any road team with a total of 5.5 that has allowed 3 goals or more in each of their last 3 games, versus an opponent that’s allowed 5 goals or more in each of their last 2 games has seen 30 of those 38 games (78.9%) go under the total since the start of the 1996-1997 year.

Free Pick: Islanders/Senators to go under the total of 5.5.
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