NHL Picks: Islanders vs. Senators

David Lawrence

Friday, November 1, 2013 12:14 PM GMT

The Ottawa Senators host the New York Islanders at the Canadian Tire Centre on Friday with the opening faceoff coming at 7:35 PM ET. Find out why we have focused our NHL picks on this game's betting total.

According to NHL odds Ottawa is a -140 money line home favorite and the posted total is 5.5. These two clubs have seen 7 of their last 10 meetings go over the total.

[gameodds]7/246705/?r3=349-19-43/dec&r-1=349-19-43/us[/gameodds]

All in on the Island

The Islanders brass displayed their confidence in the potential of this year’s team when they traded Matt Moulson to Buffalo for two time 40-goal scorer Thomas Vanek. The first game following the trade produced a disappointing result as the Isles fell at home to the Rangers 3-2. They led 2-1 entering the 3rd period and subsequently allowed the Rangers to rally for the win. The Islanders have now lost their last 2, 4 of the last 5, and 7 of the last 9. The Islanders have seen 10 of their first 12-games this season be decided by 1-goal. The Islanders power play has been awesome thus far converting on 25.6% of their chances. Evgeni Nabokov has to be better in goal. The veteran posted a very average 2.84 GAA and a .906 save percentage.

The Struggling Senators

After putting together a surprising season a year ago that saw them qualify for the playoffs, then upset Montreal in the first round, the Senators have stumbled out of the gate to a 4-8 record. In their last game on Tuesday night they lost a thriller at Chicago 6-5 to the defending Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks. After jumping out to a 4-2 lead in the 2nd period they allowed Chicago to score 4 unanswered goals. They cut the lead to 6-5 on a goal by Zack Smith with 5:37 left to play but failed to get the equalizer. They enter tonight on a 3-game losing streak. Starting with tonight, Ottawa will play 7 of their next 8-games at home. They’re just 1-3 at home to start the season.

Final Analysis

This is one of those contrarian moments for me. Based on these teams recent play, this has all the earmarks of a high scoring game. Which is exactly why I am going to lean toward the under. Below is a very strong totals technical system that supports my NHL picks.

Any road team with a total of 5.5 that has allowed 3 goals or more in each of their last 3 games, versus an opponent that’s allowed 5 goals or more in each of their last 2 games has seen 30 of those 38 games (78.9%) go under the total since the start of the 1996-1997 year.

Free Pick: Islanders/Senators to go under the total of 5.5.