NHL Picks: Home Underdog Value Found on Flyers +106 vs. Stars

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 5:28 PM GMT

Our NHL handicapping professional examines Tuesday’s game between the Stars and Flyers. Join us in reading this compelling betting preview article which concludes with his NHL pick.

Stars and Flyers in Tuesday Non-Conference Tilt
The Flyers and Stars meet in Philadelphia on Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET. According to the NHL odds at Pinnacle, Dallas is a -117 money line favorite and the posted total is 5.5. These teams split their two meetings last year, and the road team skated away with a win on both occasions.

 

Rest Factor
Today will be the 5th of a four game in eight day road trip for Dallas. They began the road trip with wins over Florida and Tampa Bay. They will be playing this evening on 2 days rest.

Philadelphia enters Tuesday’s game with 5 days of rest. It will also be only their 3rd game in ten days, and all of those contests will have been played at home.

Here you can find our NHL picks of the Day

Starting Goaltenders
Antti Niemi is expected to be in goal tonight for Dallas. Although that hasn’t been confirmed, the numbers certainly suggest it should be Niemi over Kari Lehtonen. Niemi is 2-1 in his career against Philadelphia with a 1.83 GAA and .936 save percentage. Contrarily, Lehtonen is 1-10-3 in his career versus the Flyers with a lofty 3.49 GAA and below average .893 save percentage.

The Flyers are expected to have Steve Mason be between the pipes tonight. Mason has seen limited time thus far due to dealing with some personal issues. In his absence, Michael Neuvirth has been brilliant, and posted shutouts in each of the Flyers previous two games. Neuvirth is expected to start at Boston on Wednesday.

 

Money Line Betting Angle & Pick
The Dallas Stars have scored 4 goals or more in each of their last three games. When combining that factor with the current money line, it creates a very profitable betting system favoring the home underdog, and one that I’ll utilize when making one of my NHL picks today.

Play against any money line road favorite of -200 or less that’s scored 4 goals or more in each of their previous three games. This exact scenario has resulted in the money line home underdog going 26-12 (68.4%) during the past three seasons.

NHL Pick: Philadelphia +106 on the money line at Pinnacle

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