The games have played out quite differently depending on the venue as the three games in Washington have netted a total of eight goals compared to the two games in New York, which have totaled 14.
The Washington Capitals can win because…
They have the momentum. The Caps played awful in the first two games in New York but they are coming off a solid effort in Game 5 and should be able to carry that momentum over.
People making their NHL picks will pile onto the Rangers here given the home-ice advantage trends here. However, the value lies with the Caps. Their two losses in New York were only by a goal and these teams play very nip-tuck type contests. Do you really want to be laying -140 knowing that this is likely to be a one-goal game? Take the value with Washington.
The New York Rangers can win because…
Home-ice advantage is critical for the Rangers. On the season, the Rangers were fifth in home scoring average with 3.08 goals per game. On the road, their rank dropped to 23rd. NHL odds makers have taken a closer look at this series and can see that trend continuing.
The Rangers have scored a total of two goals in three games in Washington compared to eight goals in their two home games. Not only has their offense looked good, Caps goaltender Braden Holtby has helped their cause by playing awful at Madison Square Garden.
New York has outplayed Washington in the two games at MSG and that won’t change in Game 6.
Outlook & Pick
These two teams squared off in a seven-game series last year and it looks like we’re headed there again. The home team has won every time and the Rangers should extend that trend. If you’re not interested in laying the juice, the over makes sense as the games in New York have gone well above the number.
Pick: Rangers & Over at Bet365