NHL Futures: Finding Hart Trophy Race Value

There's been plenty of shifting in the Hart Trophy Race since earlier in the season. Let's examine the leaders, long shots, and best bets.

My previous look at the NHL's MVP chase dug into why it was a two-horse race involving teammates at the time. A lot has changed in relatively short order since then, and there are now a handful of viable Hart Trophy candidates. There may be some value to be found beyond the favorites.

Here are the Hart Trophy race odds from DraftKings.

Hart Trophy Race Odds

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What's happening in Edmonton?

During the start of the season it looked like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were running away from the field. They were the league's top two scorers, and their team was leading the NHL.

However, the Oilers’ playoff hopes are in jeopardy after posting a 2-10-2 record over their last 14 games. Edmonton missing the playoffs is a surefire way to open the door for other Hart Trophy contenders.

McDavid still leads the league while averaging 1.56 points per game (not counting Nikita Kucherov’s small sample of 13 points in eight games). He'll clearly still be a Hart Trophy contender if McDavid produces 125-plus points.

Draisaitl (+450) is tied for the lead in goals (26) and points (54), alongside Capitals winger Alex Ovechkin. Draisaitl has played 35 games to Ovechkin’s 39, so he could still make gains in those categories. But McDavid being on his team often doesn't help Draisaitl’s case.

If the Oilers rebound to at least reach the playoffs and McDavid and Draisaitl are their typically productive selves, they'll remain front and center as MVP candidates.

Alex Ovechkin (+350)

Meanwhile, Alex Ovechkin belongs in the same tier. It's reasonable to doubt whether the Washington Capitals superstar will be the league's top player for a full season at age 36. But he's maintaining an elite level of first-half production.

He might be the favorite if the award was handed out now, especially since his team isn't freefalling.

The Next Tier of the Hart Trophy Race

Auston Matthews (+1200)

Matthews has scored 17 goals over 15 games since we first looked at the Hart Trophy odds. Elite productivity is how a player climbs into the race.

He'll be in the mix if the Maple Leafs end up with one of the league's top records and Matthews notches 60 goals. He offers some value at this price.

Nathan MacKinnon (+2000)

The Avalanche star is an outstanding player who's scoring at better than a point-and-a-half per game pace this season. But he's already missed 10 games.

A great second half could put him in the race, but MacKinnon will get little margin for error.

Longer Odds Worth a Look in the Hart Trophy Race

Brad Marchand (+3000)

The Bruins winger is one of the long shots whom I recommended in late November, and his price has since dropped from +5000 to +3000. It's perceived Marchand is becoming more likely to win the award.

Marchand has averaged at least a point per game for six straight seasons. If he continues at 1.43 points per contest and ends up with over 100 points on an improving Bruins team, there's a Hart Trophy path for one of the league’s top agitators who's also a great player.

Kirill Kaprizov (+5000)

The Wild’s second-year star is sitting on 44 points over 34 games (16 goals and 28 assists). The dynamic leader on a competitive team is averaging 1.29 points per game.

It could be worth a tiny sprinkle of cash on Kaprizov at +5000 to see if he can reel in the Hart Trophy leaders during the second half of the season.

Cale Makar (+5000)

Voters aren't inclined to give defensemen the nod for the Hart Trophy, and that can’t be ignored when weighing the probability of Makar somehow winning.

The Norris Trophy is already designated for the best defenseman, and Chris Pronger was the last blue-liner to win the Hart Trophy in 1999-2000. The previous pivot to win before him was Bobby Orr, who took the hardware three straight seasons, starting with the 1969-1970 campaign. All of this would seem to count against Colorado’s dynamic playmaking defenseman, but there's still an opportunity for him.

Makar has tallied 16 goals over 32 games, which is a ridiculous pace for an NHL defenseman. But a route to being named MVP is notching 40 goals over 78 games (he's already missed four contests) on a powerhouse Avalanche team.

Paul Coffey is the last NHL defenseman to reach that plateau while scoring 48 goals for the Edmonton Oilers in 1985-86. Making history would at least thrust Makar further into the spotlight.

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