NHL Free Pick - Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus Blue Jackets

Dana Lane

Tuesday, November 29, 2016 7:56 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2016 7:56 PM GMT

Which teams do the public like today and  does  it match up with 'Wise Guy' money.  We also come armed with another NHL betting pick for tonight's action .

2016-2017 NHL Pick Record:  26-20   .565   +13.97 units

@DanaLaneSports @DanaLaneNHL

 

The NHL prediction business can sometimes be cruel but other times you have a gut feeling based on your years of experience. 

Last night the Islanders and Flames fulfilled that feeling as we cashed another plus money ticket. Our play tonight comes from the Columbus Blue Jackets / Tampa Bay Lightning match-up but first let's discuss what the public likes and what is the difference between public and 'wise guy' money. 

Once again, the general public jumps on the public teams without any regard for how much you have to lay but that's why books stay open.  84% of the tickets written have been on the New York Rangers but even though this line has come down a bit I'm never in the mood to lay -170, even with the highest scoring team in the league.

The next choice for the public brings us to a question I get all the time. How can the majority of tickets be written on one team but the line continues to move against that trend? We see that 83% of the tickets written have been on the Chicago Blackhawks as the public seems to think that the upheaval with the Panthers will lead to a sure win for Chicago.

So with the mass majority of bets on Chicago why has the line move down? The answer is simple. The lines are moved based on money, not percentage of bets. Even though the majority of wagers on Chicago there is more money on the Florida Panthers. You could have five people betting $5 on the Hawks but one person bet $75 on the other side. This creates a situation where the larger percentage of bets are on Chicago but the money dictates a moves from -150 to -125. 

Same situation in the Sabres-Senators game. The public is on Ottawa while the bigger money is on Buffalo.  An interesting move because Jack Eichel is expected to return tonight. The 'wise guys' got word of this before the public so they pounded the underdog Sabres.  Word of advice,  wait a couple games until Eichel gets his game legs to jump on Buffalo. 

The line movement is a reaction to the Jackets handing the Lightning a 5-3 loss last Friday.  Bettors have a tendency to back teams that lost in a recent previous meeting. They love to bet teams in a revenge spot which is the perception this game creates. Columbus is 7-3-1 at home while earning three of a possible four points on their short road trip. John Tortorella is starting to make a believer out of me. For my NHL pick. I say let's get another quality team at a small home price. 

Free NFL Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets -114Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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