The 2017 NHL season is winding so it’s never too early to start thinking about next season and how you can make next season a better one.
We’ve talked at length about money management which is at the core of any gamblers success. You must have a plan and stick to it no matter what. I have developed a system that starts every play out at one unit and progresses if need be to ensure a profit but it doesn’t blow up into a ‘Martingale system’ because that’s a course of failure if you don’t have the proper discipline or bankroll. For those that don’t know a ‘Martingale system’ is when a player doubles, triples, quadruples his bet thinking they will eventually win a bet to make a profit. Believe me, it’s easier to lose several wagers in a row than you think, full disclosure I’ve tried. Great while it last but then you have a bad streak and get wiped out. However, the mathematics of wagering has always been a passion. My thinking has always been, what bankroll is large enough to overcome bad streaks and furthermore when would you properly increase your play and when would you pay yourself. This is not a recommended system in any way shape or form but let’s pretend for a second that it is. Let’s get a clear idea of how much money would be needed to do this right.
Before I walk into fantasy land let’s get one thing straight, you have to be good at what you do above all. If you’re not a person that can pick games or has the discipline to view your wagering as a business rather than a need to have action, then you have no business playing. You are going to dig a continuous hole for yourself fueled by your competitiveness and desire to be right. I’m telling you right now, unless you look at sports wagering like the casinos do you will lose and lose often. NHL Betting is all about not giving in to the various temptations that will attempt to sabotage your bankroll.
With all that being said this is a little of what I would do.
Every game starts out as a one unit play which means different amounts to different people. Let’s equate 1 unit as a $10 bet in this case with 1.5 being $15 and so on. Then you have to figure out what bankroll would you need to cover, say nine losses, meaning you would need enough for ten games. Don’t be foolish and think that you’ll never lose that many in a row.
Then you have to figure in an average juice of -120 on an average NHL season, we’ll play bigger favorites but we’ll also sprinkle a healthy dose of underdogs which will skew the number down. Put that all that in a blender to see how much we would need to cover 10 games while trying to make a small profit on each run, laying -120. Two caveats, you wouldn’t lay $12 in the initial wager, just $10 while increasing your wager by $5 each step of the ladder. For example, your first wager would be $10 (-120) but your second would be $15 (-120) but as the streak gets bigger we must play larger. The fourth play would be $70(-120) to win the original $55 lost giving you a profit of $3.33.
The overall answer is $14,355 to cover nine losses.
In Las Vegas we can wager as little as two dollars, even that small of an amount would require a bankroll of $2,871 to properly play a Martingale system.
Do you have that kind of discipline?
In my next NHL betting blog I’ll talk about paying yourself and when can you properly increase your wagers to make this type of system worth your time. Also, how do I modify the Martingale to my advantage.
Have great weekend!