Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings NHL Picks and Predictions: Red-hot teams battle in Detroit

The Maple Leafs and Red Wings are both riding winning streaks into their clash in Detroit on Monday night. Read on for our NHL picks and predictions for tonight’s matchup.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have turned things around with a three-game winning streak and 4-0-1 record in their last five games. Those last three wins all came on the road against some pretty tough teams in New Jersey, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh.

The Detroit Red Wings also come into Monday’s game riding hot with a four-game win streak after a four-game losing streak. Detroit has been much better at home (7-2-2) than on the road (4-3-2) so far this season.

Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Monday’s Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings matchup (odds via BetRivers, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Unibet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Game Info

Date: Monday, Nov. 28, 7 p.m. ET
TV: TVAS, SN, BSDET
Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Odds

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Odds Analysis

The Maple Leafs opened at -160 but have been bet down to between -143 (Unibet) and -155 (BetMGM) despite receiving most of the handle and tickets thus far.

The Red Wings are down to between +120 (Unibet) and +130 (DraftKings) after opening at +144.

The total opened at 6.5 but has moved down to six at some books.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Picks

• Moneyline: Maple Leafs (-143 via Unibet) ★★★
• Total: Under 6.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ★★★
• Prop: William Nylander to score (+163 via BetRivers) ★★★

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings ML Pick

Maple Leafs (-143) ★★★

There were some questions in Toronto after a four-game losing streak put the Maple Leafs at 4-4-2 through 10 games. However, since then the Leafs are 9-1-3 with a goal differential of 42-29. That includes a 6-0-2 stretch with a 4-0-0 record on the road.

Toronto has a 52.87% xGF at 5-on-5 on the year and 53.83% since that turnaround at the beginning of the month. On the other hand, Detroit is outperforming its underlying numbers with just a 45.94% xGF at 5-on-5 this season.

The Leafs won all four meetings last season and although the Red Wings are better this year, Toronto is rolling. Matt Murray (4-1-1, 2.51 GAA, .921 SV%) has found his game in net and should backstop the Leafs to a win in Detroit.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings O/U Pick

Under 6.5 (-120) ★★★

The Leafs have a lot of offensive firepower but they’ve been more of an Under team so far this season. The Under has hit in 15 of Toronto's 23 games this season, including three of the last four and six of the last nine. Murray’s return has been a big part of that.

The Red Wings also have a solid netminder in Ville Husso (9-2-3, 2.39 GAA, .919 SV%) which should help the Under on Monday night. They’ve had a few more higher-scoring games recently, but the Leafs should be able to slow them down with their eighth-best 2.45 xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

DraftKings is one of the few books with this total at 6.5, so I’m taking advantage of the Under 6.5 at -120 rather than Under 6 at around even money elsewhere. I’ll pay the 20 cents to not have to worry about a push in a 4-2 game.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Prop Pick

Nylander to score (+163) ★★★

Maple Leafs winger William Nylander is quite enjoying his time on the top line (and power-play unit). He has goals in 11 of 23 games this season, including six of his last nine and each of his last two contests. The talented winger will have plenty of opportunities given his usage, and this isn’t a bad price at all at +163.