Lightning vs. Red Wings NHL Picks: Take the Home Dog on the Money Line

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, April 21, 2015 3:41 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 21, 2015 3:41 PM UTC

Our resident NHL handicapping professional has gone a superb 7-2-1 so far with his 2015 Stanley Cup Playoff selections. In this betting preview article, he’ll cover Game 3 of the series between Tampa Bay and Detroit on Tuesday which also includes a money line pick.

Lightning/Red Wings Series resumes on Tuesday at “The Joe” in Detroit
The Red Wings and Lightning will meet in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit on Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET. Tampa Bay was able to even the series at 1-1 on Saturday with a decisive 5-1 home win, after Detroit drew first blood with a 3-2 victory in the series opener. Tampa Bay held a huge shot on goal advantage of 76-38 combined during the first two games. According to the NHL betting odds at Pinnacle, Tampa Bay is a -120 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.5.


Dominant at Home but Vulnerable on the Road
The Tampa Bay Lightning has been the best home team in the NHL this season. They’ve gone a terrific 33-10 against the money line at home but are a less than average 18-23 on the road. The Lightning has gone a terrible 9-17 on the road this season following a win in their previous game. They’ve seen just one of their previous seven games on the road go over the total, and this will be their first away game since April 4th versus the Florida Panthers.


Home Sweet Home for the Red Wings
The Red Wings enter tonight having played their previous four games on the road. As a matter of fact, this will be their first home game since a 3-2 win over Carolina on April 7th. Detroit has gone a perfect 7-0 this season at Joe Louis Arena after playing their previous four games on the road. The Red Wings power play unit has been stellar this season, evidenced by them converting on an outstanding 23.6% of their man advantage opportunities. They will be facing an opponent (Tampa Bay) tonight that’s just 4-10 on the road this season, versus a team that converts 19% or better of their power play chances.


NHL Money Line Betting System
Any home team (Detroit) against the money line, versus an opponent (Tampa Bay) coming off a divisional win by four goals or more, and that opponent will be playing their fifth game or less in the last fourteen days, resulted in that home team going 47-23 (67.1%) since the beginning of the 1996-1997 NHL campaign. The average money line for the home team in those 70-games was +107.3. I’m going to be siding with the money line underdog in this game for one of my NHL picks on Tuesday.

NHL Pick: Detroit +110 on the money line over Tampa Bay at Pinnacle.

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