Lightning vs. Red Wings NHL Picks: Handicapping Logic in Game 6

Sunday, April 26, 2015 5:11 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 26, 2015 5:11 PM UTC

This NHL hockey handicapper has gone a terrific 14-5-2 during the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs. In this betting preview article he’ll focus on Game 6 for Detroit Red Wings / Tampa Bay Lightning.

<p style="text-align:center;"><iframe allowfullscreen frameborder="0" height="330" src="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/video/embed/?videoId=26407" width="560"></iframe></p> <p><strong>Red Wings seek First Round Upset of Lightning on Monday</strong><br /> The Detroit Red Wings host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday at 7:05 PM ET in Game 6 of their <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/eastern-conference-futures-1st-round-nhl-playoffs-picks/56338/" target="_blank" title="Eastern Conference Futures &amp; 1st Round NHL Playoffs Picks">Eastern Conference playoff series</a>. The Red Wings have a 3-2 series lead by virtue of a 4-0 win at Tampa on Saturday. The Red Wings Peter Mrazek earned his second shutout of the series by stopping all 28 shots on goal by the Lightning. According to the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/" target="_blank" title="Compare NHL odds trading right now">NHL betting odds</a>, Detroit is a -105 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.0. These teams have seen just one of the first five games of the series go over the total.</p> <p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/lightning-vs-red-wings-nhl-picks-series-price-predictions/56251/" target="_blank" title="Series Price Predictions"><em>Our Earliest Series Price Predictions: Lightning vs. Red Wings NHL Picks</em></a></p> <p><strong>Backs up against the Wall</strong><br /> The Tampa Bay Lightning will be in an urgent situation when they take the ice for Game 6 on Monday. A loss by the Lightning will result in a surprising early exit from the playoffs for the second consecutive year in a row. Although the Lightning amassed the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/nhl-odds-factor-home-away-splits-when-placing-futures-picks/55919/" target="_blank" title="NHL Odds: Factor in Home/Away Splits When Placing Futures Picks">most points at home in the NHL this season, they’re just 19-24 on the road</a>. They were able to stage an improbable comeback in Game 4 at Detroit, overcoming a two goal deficit with less than six minutes to play in regulation time, and captured a 3-2 overtime victory. However, they were less than impressive during a 3-0 loss at Joe Louis Arena in Game 3. Tampa Bay has gone over the total in fifteen of twenty this season following a game in which there was a combined four goals or less scored.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Seizing the Moment</strong><br /> The Detroit Red Wings have an excellent opportunity to pull off a first round playoff upset with a series clinching home win on Monday. Although they still have a window for error, the need for a win is a bit more urgent than usual in a scenario such as this. They’ve already defeated the best home team (Lightning) in the NHL twice during this series, and the prospects of having to return to Tampa Bay for a deciding Game 7, and hoping for a third road win would seem improbable. The Red Wings have gone over the total in 18 of 24-games at home during the past two seasons when the total is 5.0.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>NHL Betting System</strong><br /> Any road team (Tampa Bay) playing with same season revenge stemming from a home loss by four goals or more, and has a winning record for the season, resulted in that road team going over the total in 50 of those 69-games (72.5%) since 1996. I’m going to follow that handicapping logic when making my <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/" target="_blank" title="Free NHL Picks, Futures &amp; Predictions">NHL picks</a> for Monday.</p> <p><strong>NHL Picks: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=807&amp;book=inarticlepinnacle" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Take advantage of Pinnacle's Betting Lines">Play Over the total of 5.0 at Pinnacle (+118)</a></p> <p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2834655, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,43,227,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p>
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