Lightning vs. Red Wings NHL Picks: Handicapping Logic in Game 6

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, April 26, 2015 5:11 PM GMT

This NHL hockey handicapper has gone a terrific 14-5-2 during the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs. In this betting preview article he’ll focus on Game 6 for Detroit Red Wings / Tampa Bay Lightning.

Red Wings seek First Round Upset of Lightning on Monday
The Detroit Red Wings host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday at 7:05 PM ET in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference playoff series. The Red Wings have a 3-2 series lead by virtue of a 4-0 win at Tampa on Saturday. The Red Wings Peter Mrazek earned his second shutout of the series by stopping all 28 shots on goal by the Lightning. According to the NHL betting odds, Detroit is a -105 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.0. These teams have seen just one of the first five games of the series go over the total.

Our Earliest Series Price Predictions: Lightning vs. Red Wings NHL Picks

Backs up against the Wall
The Tampa Bay Lightning will be in an urgent situation when they take the ice for Game 6 on Monday. A loss by the Lightning will result in a surprising early exit from the playoffs for the second consecutive year in a row. Although the Lightning amassed the most points at home in the NHL this season, they’re just 19-24 on the road. They were able to stage an improbable comeback in Game 4 at Detroit, overcoming a two goal deficit with less than six minutes to play in regulation time, and captured a 3-2 overtime victory. However, they were less than impressive during a 3-0 loss at Joe Louis Arena in Game 3. Tampa Bay has gone over the total in fifteen of twenty this season following a game in which there was a combined four goals or less scored.

 

Seizing the Moment
The Detroit Red Wings have an excellent opportunity to pull off a first round playoff upset with a series clinching home win on Monday. Although they still have a window for error, the need for a win is a bit more urgent than usual in a scenario such as this. They’ve already defeated the best home team (Lightning) in the NHL twice during this series, and the prospects of having to return to Tampa Bay for a deciding Game 7, and hoping for a third road win would seem improbable. The Red Wings have gone over the total in 18 of 24-games at home during the past two seasons when the total is 5.0.

 

NHL Betting System
Any road team (Tampa Bay) playing with same season revenge stemming from a home loss by four goals or more, and has a winning record for the season, resulted in that road team going over the total in 50 of those 69-games (72.5%) since 1996. I’m going to follow that handicapping logic when making my NHL picks for Monday.

NHL Picks: Play Over the total of 5.0 at Pinnacle (+118)

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