Lightning vs. Red Wings NHL Picks: Go 'Under' in Low Scoring Game 4

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, April 22, 2015 10:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 22, 2015 10:39 PM UTC

We’ll examine Game 4 of the NHL playoff series between Tampa Bay and Detroit on Thursday. Our betting preview article regarding this contest is concluded with a selection on the total.

Lightning looking to strike in Game 5 at Detroit
The Detroit Red Wings will host the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of their playoff series on Thursday at 7:05 PM ET. Currently the Red Wings hold a 2-1 series lead following a home win on Tuesday. According to the NHL betting odds at 5Dimes, Detroit is a -110 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.0. Since the start of the 2013-2014 NHL campaign, Tampa Bay has gone under the total in five of their six games played at Detroit. As a matter of fact, the high scoring Lightning has now been held scoreless in each of their previous two games in Detroit.


Home and Away Disparity continues for Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning has gone a NHL best 33-10 against the money line at home this season. However, when they go on the road it’s been a whole other story. After sustaining a loss at Detroit on Tuesday, the Lightning are now an unimpressive 18-24 on the road. Tampa Bay has also gone under the total in each of their last four away games, and went over the number in only one of their previous eight on the road


Mrazek with a huge Bounce Back Performance
Petr Mrazek rebounded nicely from Game 2 in this series when he allowed four goals on just eighteen shots, and was subsequently pulled from the contest. He stopped all 22-shots on goal by Tampa Bay during a 3-0 Red Wings win on Tuesday. Mrazek has posted an outstanding .950 save percentage in his last four starts, and three of those stayed under the total.


NHL Totals Betting System
Tampa Bay will be playing their fifth game in the last fourteen days on Thursday. That scheduling combined with the fact they’re coming off a shutout defeat at Detroit in game 3 of this series, creates a very profitable totals angle that I’ll follow when making my NHL picks on Thursday.

Any team (Tampa Bay) that’s playing in their fifth game or less in the past fourteen days, and is coming off a road loss in which they were shutout, has seen that team go under the total in 35 of those 46-games (76.1%) during the past five seasons.

NHL Pick: Play on the Lightning and Red Wings to go under the total of 5.0 at 5Dimes

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