Lightning vs. Blackhawks NHL Picks: In-Depth Analysis Suggests Blackhawks to Win SU & Go 'Over' the Total

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, June 10, 2015 12:33 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 10, 2015 12:33 PM UTC

Our resident NHL handicapping professional is a perfect 3-0 thus far in the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals and 35-21 in the NHL Playoffs overall right here at SBR. He provides us with an insightful betting preview article for Game 4 on Wednesday which includes both a money line and totals selection.

Stanley Cup Finals Game 4
The Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning reconvene their 2015 Stanley Cup Finals series on Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET. The Lightning overcame a 2-1 third period deficit in Game 3 at Chicago and skated away with a 3-2 win. The Lightning enters Game 4 tonight with a 2-1 series lead. The teams have gone 2-1 under the total in the first three games of the series.


Money Line Analysis
By virtue of their losses in Games 2 and 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals, Chicago suffered consecutive defeats for the first time in these 2015 NHL Playoffs, and they’re now 5-1 following a loss. Despite the home loss in Game 3, Chicago is still an excellent 7-2 at home during this postseason. The idea of this playoff tested and veteran team losing three games in a row, including two straight at home, seems highly unlikely.

Tampa Bay has gone a terrific 8-3 on the road during the playoffs. However, we must keep in mind the Lightning went just 18-23 on the road during regular season play. They’re also just 10-15 this season following a road win.

Any money line home favorite (Chicago) of -200 or less with a better than .500 winning percentage, playing in the second half of the season, and is also playing with same season double revenge stemming from a pair of one goal losses, versus an opponent (Tampa Bay) with a better than .500 winning percentage, resulted in the home team going 87-35 (71.3%) since 1996. This betting system strongly favors Chicago tonight, and that’s exactly what I’m going to be doing when making my NHL picks. After shopping major sportsbooks in my search for betting value, 5Dimes provides me with the best price in that regard.

NHL Pick: Play Chicago -158 on the money line at 5Dimes.

Must Read: Lightning-Blackhawks Game 3 Prop Betting Odds

Game 4 Totals Analysis
As I alluded to earlier, Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals was won by Tampa Bay 3-2, and stayed under the total of 5.5. Chicago has gone 4-0 over the total in the playoffs following a game that went under. Tampa Bay has gone 8-2-1 over the total in this postseason following a game that stayed under.

Both of these teams possess a plethora of offensive firepower not only at the forward positions but from their defensemen as well. This isn’t one of those Stanley Cup Finals where either starting goaltender has been the major reason why their teams have advanced this far. As a matter of fact, each has shown signs of inconsistency throughout the playoffs, and both were either pulled from games or not given a start due to poor performance. Although Ben Bishop turned in a gutty and outstanding performance in Game 3 for Tampa Bay, there’s no doubt in my mind he’s far less than 100% healthy.

I like Game 4 to be a relatively high scoring affair, and Heritage provides me with the best price in that regard.

NHL Pick:  Chicago and Tampa Bay to go over the total of 5.5 (+125) at Heritage.

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