Lightning vs. Rangers Game 5 NHL Picks: Will Home Ice, Under Trends Continue?

A pivotal Game 5 matchup is set for Thursday between the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers in the NHL Eastern Conference Final. Here are our Lightning-Rangers picks.

The winner of Game 5 will have a significant advantage and opportunity to close out the series Saturday. We'll look to break down the battle between these teams to see where the betting value lies.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Rangers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lightning vs. Rangers Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, June 9, 8 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Lightning vs. Rangers Odds Analysis

This game opened with the Lightning as -125 favorites and the total at 5.5. Since opening, the Lightning's line has moved slightly to -130, but I expect it to come down 5-10 cents before game time.

The total will likely stay at 5.5 but currently sits juiced to -140. It's plausible we see the total drop to 5 at lesser vig by game time.

Lightning vs. Rangers Picks

Rangers (+115 via DraftKings) ????Alt Total Under 5 (+120 via DraftKings) ????Steven Stamkos Over 3.5 shots (+130 via FanDuel) ????

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Lightning vs. Rangers Odds Predictions

Rangers (+110)

This series is beginning to look much like their last one, when neither the Rangers nor Carolina Hurricanes could win on the road until Game 7. The Lighting will look to buck that trend in Game 5, but it will be challenging in a raucous environment against a Rangers team that has been in this spot before.

Though it will be a tougher challenge against a veteran Tampa team, head coach Gerard Gallant seems to get the best out of his team in these spots. They'll try to take advantage of the last change to play their best defensive unit against the Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov line and look to possess the puck more.

We likely see this team emulate their game plan from the series opener when both their Corsi For percentage and high-danger chances were nearly identical to the Lightning's.

Analytically, the Lightning hold a decisive advantage in this series overall, but we should see a Rangers team with a different blueprint. Look New York to take the series lead back on home ice.

Alt Under 5 (+120)

Only one game in this series has exceeded the standard 5.5 total that has been set due to the otherworldly play of the goaltenders and strong defensive play from both teams.

However, bookmakers have caught on to this trend and have heavily juiced the Under. We'll look to avoid that by playing the alt total at plus-money.

Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin has been sensational in the postseason with a 2.65 goals against average and 11.0 goals saved above average. He is largely why this Rangers team is where it is and knows he will have to step up this evening.

Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has been nearly as good in the playoffs with a 2.44 GAA and 6.3 GSAA. He has been prone to a few hiccups along the way, but after a lackluster performance in the opener, he has held the Rangers to just three goals at 5v5.

We should expect both goaltenders to continue their stellar play and continue to see strong defensive performances from both squads. Look for Game 5 to be yet another low-scoring affair.

Stamkos Over 3.5 shots (+130)

Full disclaimer: Shot props will make you curse even your favorite player, so steer clear if you're a Stamkos fan.

I played this prop in Game 4 and after Stamkos missed the net, failed to get a shot on a breakaway chance, and bobbled a puck alone in front of the net, I was defeated and questioned whether or not the two-time Rocket Richard winner is a true professional. It's safe to assume my bias and dismay got the best of me and that Stamkos is one of the best players of his generation.

He is a sniper and has averaged 4.5 shots per game in this series. The Lightning know they will have to pepper Shesterkin on the road in an attempt to get on the board.

Look for Stamkos to exceed this total in Game 5 with relative ease.

Where to Bet on Lightning-Rangers Picks

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Lightning-Rangers picks made on 6/9/2022 at 9:26 a.m. ET.