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Lightning vs. Avalanche NHL Game 1 Picks: Who Takes Early Advantage in Cup Final?

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: June 14, 2022 3:37 AM EDT • 2 min 51 sec read.

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 19: Cale Makar #8 of the Colorado Avalanche brings the puck up the ice against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at the Amalie Arena on October 19, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. Mike Carlson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Mike Carlson / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Stanley Cup Final kicks off on Wednesday night when the defending back-to-back champion Tampa Bay Lightning storm into the Ball Arena in Denver to take on the Colorado Avalanche. Read on for our Lightning-Avalanche picks and predictions.

With designs on a three-peat, the Lightning have almost impossibly crafted a dynasty during the salary-cap era. After dispatching the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers in the opening two rounds, Tampa punched its ticket to the final with a nip-tuck 4-2 series victory over the New York Rangers.

In the midst of an absolute dominant run, the Avalanche, powered by insane performances by Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, have gone 12-2 thus far in the postseason, earning their way to the final with a clean sweep of the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Final.

Is three the magic number for the Lightning? Or will the Avalanche hoist Lord Stanley's Cup for the first time in more than two decades?

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday's Stanley Cup Final matchup between the Lightning and Avalanche (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Lightning vs. Avalanche Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, June 15, 8 p.m. ETTV: ABC, CBC, SportsnetLocation: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Lightning vs. Avalanche Odds Analysis

Opening as a -170 favorite, the line has moved slightly to -155 at DraftKings Sportsbook with the Avalanche taking on 63% of the cash. Those looking to back a very live underdog, the Lightning can be snatched up at +135.

The goal total is set at six, with the Over paying out at -115 odds, while the Under carries -105 odds (Caesars Sportsbook).

https://twitter.com/BetMGM/status/1536690801908105216

Lightning vs. Avalanche Picks

Avalanche (-155 via DraftKings)????Over 6 (-115 via Caesars)????Nathan MacKinnon anytime scorer (+142 via FanDuel)????

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Lightning vs. Avalanche Predictions

Avalanche (-155)

It’s extremely hard to pick an opening game of a series. Although both teams are meeting for the sport's ultimate prize, they took very different paths to get to this point. After completely running roughshod over the Oilers, the Avalanche have the better numbers 5-on-5, registering an impressive 57.72 Corsi for percentage, and a 57.73 expected goals for percentage in the postseason. They've also scored more goals per game by a considerable margin, and have comparable goals surrendered numbers.

Colorado won both head-to-head matchups in the regular season, but only by a combined two goals (one of which came via shootout). I expect a similar result on Wednesday night with the Avalanche drawing first blood on home ice (where they're a ridiculous 37-7-4 this year).

Over 6 (-115)

The amount of firepower on both ends of the ice is terrifying. Makar, MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog, and Nazem Kadri are all averaging more than a point a game, while the Lightning boast the terrifying triumvirate of Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman.

Colorado is averaging 4.6 goals per game in the playoffs and has combined with its opponents to score six-plus goals nine times in 14 games. Despite dealing with a brick wall named Igor Shesterkin in the Eastern Conference Final, the Lightning are still averaging 3.1 goals per game in the postseason, with seven of their 17 games topping the six-goal plateau.

Luckily for the Lightning, Shesterkin isn't patrolling the crease for the Avalanche. Instead, they’ll face either Pavel Francouz or Darcy Kuemper, who are a pair of solid netminders, but aren't Vezina/Hart Trophy candidates. Also, Tampa netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has the ability to completely dominate from the crease, but I'm expecting Colorado's vaunted offense to find a way to give him red-light burns.

I anticipate a 4-3-type affair, with the Avalanche emerging victorious.

MacKinnon anytime scorer (+142)

MacKinnon is playing like a man possessed. Hockey's foremost purveyor of terrifyingly strict diets, MacKinnon has lit the lamp 11 times in 14 games, and has found the back of the net in three of his last four games. He's also launching frozen rubber at a dizzying pace, firing a ludicrous 5.9 shots on goal per game in the postseason. That means there's also some tremendous value in backing him at Over 4.5 shots (-130 via Caesars).

In his lone game against Tampa this season, MacKinnon scored a goal and added a pair of assists, and I expect him to run wild again on Wednesday night.

Where to Bet on Lightning-Avalanche Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Lightning-Avalanche picks made on 6/14/2022 at 7:01 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.