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Kraken vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: October 31, 2024 12:55 PM EDT • 2 min 50 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll makes a save against the St. Louis Blues as we offer our Kraken vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll makes a save against the St. Louis Blues. Photo by John E. Sokolowski via Imagn Images

While their Stanley Cup odds are among the five shortest, the Toronto Maple Leafs' inconsistent play doesn't inspire confidence in those interested in backing them as a futures play. Nor do their recent playoff performances, but that's another story entirely. 

The 5-4-1 Maple Leafs enter Thursday's game at Scotiabank Arena as favorites against the visiting Seattle Kraken, whose record is identical to Toronto's mark. The puck drops at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). 

The similarities don't stop there, as both teams are coming off victories after losing three straight. The underdog Kraken throttled the Montreal Canadiens 8-2 on Tuesday, while the Maple Leafs ended Winnipeg's unbeaten streak with a 6-4 victory. 

Our Kraken vs. Maple Leafs prediction backs the Maple Leafs on home ice and also offers a high-value Auston Matthews prop pick. 

Kraken vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Maple Leafs regulation win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -130 via Betway | Implied probability: 56.52%

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The Maple Leafs have won three straight and five of six against the Kraken since Seattle entered the league in 2021.

But based on Toronto's current 10-game sample size, it's hard to predict which version of Craig Berube's squad will show up. The Leafs played well in Winnipeg for the first half of the game, building a 4-0 lead before unraveling in the third period. 

Toronto has played its best hockey with Anthony Stolarz between the pipes. The Buds are 4-2-1 with Stolarz starting and 1-2-0 without him. While Stolarz is the current go-to guy, Berube acutely understands the importance of getting Joseph Woll up to speed. 

With that in mind, Woll will get his second start of the season tonight. He won his only outing against the Kraken, a 4-3 overtime triumph last season. 

While inconsistency has been plaguing the Maple Leafs, they've produced the eighth-best expected goals differential (2.61) and the eighth-best actual goals differential above expected. That shows they're creating chances and carrying the play often.

Toronto has posted the sixth-most goals for per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (3.28) and the 11th-best goals against per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (2.23). Uncharacteristically, the team's third-worst power-play unit (9.4%) has been its Achilles heel.  

Is regression coming for the Kraken?

Regarding the Kraken, four of their five victories this season have come against teams that didn't make the playoffs last campaign.

They've produced the eighth-worst expected goals percentage (46.29%) and the 12th-best actual goals percentage, one sign that regression could be looming. 

A winning $10 bet will profit $7.69. 

Kraken vs. Maple Leafs player prop bet

NHL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change

Auston Matthew prop bet: Over 0.5 power play points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +165 via Betway | Implied probability: 37.74%

This prop bet hit the last time we played it when the Maple Leafs scored two power-play goals against the Los Angeles Kings just over two weeks ago. That two-goal explosion represents 67% of Toronto's total output with the man advantage. 

The league's third-worst power play has logged three goals on 32 opportunities. However, Toronto boasts the fifth-most high-danger chances with the man advantage, so creating opportunities isn't an issue.

Matthews has registered the most shots in the NHL (47), but he's only scored four goals. It's just a matter of time before his 8.5 shooting percentage improves. His previous career low in 2022-23 was 12.2%. 

Kraken vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

  • When: Thursday, Oct. 31
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
  • How to watch: ESPN+
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs (-200 via Betway)

Kraken-Maple Leafs predictions made Thursday at noon ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.