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TORONTO, ON - MARCH 8: John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates a goal against the Seattle Kraken at Scotiabank Arena on March 8, 2022 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Photo by Claus Andersen / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP.

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to bounce back from a loss on Saturday when they return to the comfortable confines of Scotiabank Arena to host the slumping New York Islanders on Monday. Read on for our best Islanders vs. Maple Leafs pick based on top odds.

Although they are coming off a 3-2 loss in overtime at Montreal on Saturday, the Maple Leafs remain one of the top teams in the league, especially on home ice.

Toronto has a 17-3-4 record at Scotiabank Arena this season, the third-best home record in the league.

While the Islanders are ostensibly in the race for a playoff spot, they have just one win in the past nine games.  

Here is our best Islanders vs. Maple Leafs NHL pick (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Game Info

  • Date: Monday, Jan. 23, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet, MSGSN
  • Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Check out our complete list of NHL odds!

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Odds Analysis

The FanDuel moneyline opened with the Maple Leafs favored at -200, compared to the Islanders at +164.

With 74% of the early consensus moneyline wagers on the Maple Leafs, it now costs -235 for a Toronto win on the moneyline, with the Islanders priced at +190.

The total briefly opened at 6.5 -110 on both sides of the ledger. The total quickly shifted to 6 and, with 57% of the action on the Under, the U6 is -128, while the Over is +104.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Pick

Maple Leafs -1.5 (+110) vs. Islanders 

Even if regular season results won’t do much for fans who yearn for any kind of playoff success, it's still notable that the Maple Leafs are in fourth place in the entire league with 64 points.

The Leafs control 56.8% of expected goals and 60.5% of goals scored during five-on-five play on home ice, ranking fourth and third, respectively.

The Islanders have been struggling since losing shutdown defenseman Adam Pelech to an upper-body injury in early December. They had a 16-10 record when Pelech got hurt, but are just 7-10-5 since. The good news for the Islanders is that Pelech was activated from the injured list on Monday afternoon.

The Islanders are a team of special team extremes. They rank 31st in goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play but are No. 2 in rate of goals allowed per 60 minutes during four-on-five play.

Against a Toronto team that has looked unbeatable on home ice, the Islanders should be overmatched. The moneyline doesn't offer much value, so take the Maple Leafs to cover the puck line since nine of Toronto’s 17 home wins have been by a margin of more than one goal.

Check out our Stanley Cup odds.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Best Odds

Caesars, PointsBet (+110)

Toronto -2.5Toronto -1.5Toronto -1.5Toronto -1.5Toronto -1.5
+180+110+105+115 🔥+115 🔥

The puck line is relatively consistent at most of the top-rated sportsbooks, with the price for Toronto -1.5 ranging between +105 and +115. 

DraftKings has shifted its standard puck line to Maple Leafs -2.5, with a +180 payout – and as much as I like the Maple Leafs to win this game, I have an aversion to a 2.5-goal spread in the NHL because teams with multi-goal leads tend to play much more conservatively.

Islanders-Maple Leafs pick made 1/23/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.

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