NHL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Saturday

It’s a loaded slate Saturday, with 30 of 32 teams hitting the ice. The action starts early with a showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins, and the battle between the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers is the perfect nightcap. Here are sports betting analyst Neil Parker’s top NHL picks for Saturday based on the best NHL odds.

There are plenty of contests with postseason implications on the Saturday docket. The Winnipeg Jets and Los Angeles Kings are both jockeying for position in the Western Conference, while the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes headline another marquee matchup in the Eastern Conference.

Of course, all eyes should also be on Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid. He's scorching during a six-game multi-point streak, and that includes his 60th goal of the campaign last time out.

Here are our best NHL picks for Saturday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NHL picks.  

Saturday’s NHL schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

• Tampa Bay Lightning (+140) vs. Boston Bruins (-165)
• Detroit Red Wings (+110) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-130)
• Seattle Kraken (-135) vs. Nashville Predators (+115)
• San Jose Sharks (+250) vs. Calgary Flames (-300)
• Winnipeg Jets (+100) vs. Los Angeles Kings (-120)
• Buffalo Sabres (+150) vs. New York Islanders (-175)
• Chicago Blackhawks (+280) vs. Minnesota Wild (-340)
• New York Rangers (+105) vs. Florida Panthers (-125)
• Ottawa Senators (+165) vs. New Jersey Devils (-195)
• Columbus Blue Jackets (+130) vs. Montreal Canadiens (-150)
• Toronto Maple Leafs (+120) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-140)
• Vancouver Canucks (+165) vs. Dallas Stars (-195)
• Washington Capitals (+125) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-145)
• Vegas Golden Knights (+155) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-180)
• St. Louis Blues (-155) vs. Anaheim Ducks (+135)

Saturday’s NHL best bets

• Puck line: Wild -1.5 (-133 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Regulation bet: Stars (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Moneyline Upset: Senators (+170 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐
• Player Prop: Drew Doughty Under 0.5 points (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Saturday’s NHL top picks

Puck line: Wild -1.5 (-133 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is the final leg of a five-game road trip for the Blackhawks, and they’ve lost the past three by a combined 15-3 score. I’m anticipating Chicago putting forth an all-time, mail-it-in effort while Minnesota fills the net and plays its typical defensively responsible game Saturday.

The Wild are also in a ripe bounce-back spot following a disappointing 5-4 shootout loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday. Even with the defeat, Minnesota is cruising along during an active 13-1-4 stretch with the fewest five-on-five goals against per 60 minutes in the league. 

Additionally, with the Wild just a point behind Dallas for the No. 1 spot in the Central Division, Minnesota won’t take the Blackhawks lightly. Make no mistake, every point counts as the teams in the Western Conference jockey for seeding.

I’m beyond confident Minnesota will win this game, but my preferred plays rarely come with a vig attached, especially on the puck line. Still, shopping leads to a slight edge through the -133 odds via BetMGM. That results in a positive expected value of 2% over the -140 through Caesars.

Check out our Rocket Richard Trophy odds and Hart Trophy odds.

Regulation bet: Stars (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

I’m counting on statistical correction weighing on Dallas’ side Saturday.

The Canucks have topped the Stars twice over the past month, but Dallas caved Vancouver in at five-on-five during both meetings with a combined 64.0 Corsi For percentage and 63.0 expected goals for percentage.

The same is true beyond those two games. The Stars rank 12th in CF% (51.9%) and 11th in xGF% (52.3%) at five-on-five when adjusted for score and venue, while the Canucks respectively sit 24th (47.0%) and 25th (46.7%) in the two metrics.

Vancouver also boasts the seventh-highest PDO (102.9) through 12 games since No. 1 netminder Thatcher Demko returned from a groin injury. That only reinforces the likelihood of negative regression ahead for the Canucks.

Because statistical correction often occurs over a period of time and isn’t guaranteed to strike immediately, I’ve given this a three-star nod. Make sure to land the -125 odds, as that price provides an expected positive value of 5% over the -140 number through Caesars.

Check out our latest Stanley Cup odds.

Moneyline Upset: Senators (+170 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐

New Jersey is playing its second game in consecutive nights following a 5-4 road loss in Buffalo on Friday. The Ottawa Senators, on the other hand, are rested and coming off a commanding 7-2 win over Tampa Bay on Thursday. 

I particularly value this schedule setup for the Senators because both New Jersey goalies played in Friday’s game, and the Devils will also endure a short return trip ahead of this back-to-back spot.

Additionally, the Devils are in the midst of a mini funk with an active 1-3-2 record. While the underlying metrics remain promising, I still think we’re landing value on the Ottawa side. The Sens are attempting to chase down a wild-card berth, and 6-foot-7 netminder Mads Sogaard has stopped 60 of 64 shots (.938 save percentage) across his past two starts.

The two-star recommendation is because we’re backing a road underdog, and the Devils rank considerably higher in all my key handicapping metrics: Corsi For percentage, goals for, and expected goals for percentages at five-on-five.

Additionally, there isn’t a huge edge provided through shopping for the best number. The +170 prices available offer a positive expected value of 2% over the +164 odds through FanDuel.

Check out our latest Norris Trophy odds and Calder Trophy odds.

Player Prop: Drew Doughty Under 0.5 points (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The plus-money odds here jumped out to me immediately. 

Doughty has only registered a point in seven of 18 games since the All-Star break, and the veteran defenseman has also recorded 23 of his 45 points this season with the man advantage. Winnipeg has taken the 14th-most minor penalties at five-on-five this campaign, but the Jets also rank third in penalty-kill percentage (83.4%).

The Jets play above-average defense at five-on-five, with ranks of ninth in Corsi For percentage (53.0), 13th in goals against per 60 minutes (2.61), and 11th in expected goals against per 60 (2.52) following the All-Star pause.

Add in Winnipeg's No. 1 netminder Connor Hellebuyck sporting a sixth-ranked .918 save percentage and a fifth-best 24.0 goals saved above average, and the Jets are a tough opponent for Doughty to mark the scoresheet against.

There isn’t a significant edge in the available odds, which is why I’ve dubbed this a three-star recommendation. The difference between landing the +120 number and avoiding the +115 through PointsBet is a positive expected value of 2%.

NHL best bets made 3/25/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.

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