NHL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

It’s a doozy of a day in the NHL. The trade deadline has finally arrived, Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid is chasing down history, and the Vegas Golden Knights host the New Jersey Devils in a marquee nightcap. Here’s sports betting analyst Neil Parker’s top NHL picks based on the best NHL odds. 

Friday afternoon’s trade deadline is going to garner plenty of attention. It’s the final opportunity for clubs to make a huge splash for a postseason push, and a number of star talents have already joined new teams.

The evening action also has two particularly entertaining matchups.

The Winnipeg Jets and netminder Connor Hellebuyck will looking to avoid becoming the latest clip in McDavid's 2022-23 highlight reel. McDavid, meanwhile, can become the first player in over 100 years to score multiple goals in six consecutive games.

Elsewhere, New Jersey takes a sterling 22-4-3 road record to Vegas for a showdown of Stanley Cup contenders. We might also see recently acquired winger Timo Meier debut with the Devils; he has been out with an upper-body injury.

Here are our best NHL picks for Friday's schedule (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all our NHL picks.  

Friday’s NHL schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

• Seattle Kraken (-162) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+134)
• Winnipeg Jets (+130) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-156)
• Carolina Hurricanes (-385) vs. Arizona Coyotes (+300)
• New Jersey Devils (-114) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-105)
• Montreal Canadiens (-106) vs. Anaheim Ducks (-113)

Friday’s NHL best bets

• Puck line: Hurricanes -1.5 (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Team total: Canadiens Under 2.5 goals (+140 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: Trevor Zegras Over 2.5 shots (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
• Prop: Leon Draisaitl Under 0.5 power-play points (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Friday’s NHL top picks

Puck line: Hurricanes -1.5 (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Carolina heads to Mullett Arena with consecutive losses on the ledger, so I’m anticipating the Hurricanes putting on a 60-minute clinic against the Coyotes. 

The ‘Canes pace the league in Corsi For percentage and expected goals for percentage at five-on-five when adjusted for score and venue, and Arizona respectively ranks third-worst in both metrics. Carolina also ranks No. 1 in expected goals against (2.06).

A peek at the two depth charts also reinforces the mismatch. 

Finally, prior to Carolina’s two-game slide, the Hurricanes had won five straight with a plus-15 goal differential. 

I’m incredibly confident in Carolina winning Friday. I would grade a moneyline bet on the Hurricanes as a five-star recommendation. Winning by two is a different story, and that’s why I’ve only listed this as a three-star nod. 

The difference in the best (-125) and worst odds (-144) through our best sportsbooks equals a positive expected value of 6%.

Team total: Canadiens Under 2.5 goals (+140 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Montreal is in a tough schedule spot Friday. This will be the fifth game in eight nights and third in the past four for the Habs. Seven of their past eight contests have also been on the road.

Anaheim, meanwhile, has had a full day of rest following each of its past four games and this will be the third straight at the Honda Center for the Ducks. 

I’m also encouraged with Anaheim netminder John Gibson’s recent improved play. He’s stopped 179 of 190 shots (.942 save percentage) across his past four starts to elevate his season mark to a tip-top .922 across his past 10. 

Statistical correction is ahead for the Canadiens, too. They boast an 11.1 percent team shooting rate at five-on-five following the All-Star break, the league's sixth-highest mark over that span. Montreal sported a middling 8.3 shooting percentage with the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.34) through its first 51 games of the season.

We’re landing a nice edge placing this wager through FanDuel, and that’s why I’ve graded this as a three-star bet. The +140 odds present a positive expected value of 12% over BetMGM.

Prop: Trevor Zegras Over 2.5 shots (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

The Anaheim center has only cleared this total once through his past four games, but as noted earlier, he lands in a great matchup Friday. Additionally, I largely attribute the recent dip in Zegras’ shot totals to fewer of his attempts hitting the net.

He’s converted just 33.3% of his 15 attempts into shots on goal during the four-game stretch, compared to a 51.6% clip through his first 58 contests. I also value centerman Ryan Strome playing on the same line as Zegras. Strome is a capable setup man and should continue to provide Zegras with shooting opportunities. 

Montreal has surrendered the sixth-most shots (33.4) and fourth-most attempts (62.6) per 60 minutes this season, and the Habs have been even more vulnerable on the road with 35.4 and 65.4 marks, respectively.

While there isn’t a huge gap in the available odds, the +115 number through DraftKings still presents a positive expected value of 4%. Zegras has struggled to clear this total of late, and while I’m banking on statistical correction, I only grade this as a two-star recommendation. 

Prop: Leon Draisaitl Under 0.5 power-play points (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

While everyone is gushing over McDavid potentially becoming the first player in over a century to score twice in six consecutive games, I’m happy to fire up plus-money odds that his teammate won’t register a power-play point.

Amazingly, Draisaitl is carrying better odds in this market despite registering 10 fewer points with the man advantage across just two fewer games.

The Jets boast a second-ranked 84.5 penalty-kill percentage, and they’re also reasonably disciplined. Winnipeg has the 13th-fewest penalty minutes (512), 13th-lowest shorthanded time (301:29) and has taken the 13th-fewest minors at five-on-five since the All-Star break. 

Hellebuyck has top-tier numbers while shorthanded for the Jets, too. He ranks third in save percentage and fourth in goals saved above average on the penalty kill.

This is also a unique betting market because there’s no guarantee Edmonton even receives a power-play opportunity. While that's unlikely, I’m still happy to back a plus-money offering that a player won’t register a point across a three- to five-minute span of power-play time.

This is one of my favorite recommendations all season from an entertainment standpoint, and I can’t wait to tune in and watch it play out. Draisaitl has posted a power-play point in 36 of 60 games, so it’s far from a lock, and I’ve pegged it as a three-star nod for that reason. 

There also isn’t a huge edge in the available odds with the +120 number presenting a positive expected value of just 2% over the +115 through BetMGM.

NHL best bets made 3/2/2023 at 12:30 a.m. ET.

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