Free NHL Picks: Ottawa Senators vs Calgary Flames

Zack Smith #15 and Matt Puempel #26 of the Ottawa Senators

Friday, October 28, 2016 8:31 PM GMT

Expert hockey handicapper explains why tonight it is not the time to forget Brian Elliot's early troubles, read why the Senators are the sharp side tonight.

 

2016-17 NHL Selection Record:  11-7   .611   +12.38 units
@DanaLaneSports

 

With our bankroll well into the black, we'll continue to look for underdogs that may be undervalued in an effort to use a minimal amount of our bankroll to increase our profit margin. Low risk, high reward. I want to reiterate a point that this is not the time to put more on a game than you normally would because you're comfortable with a production to date. Slow and steady wins the financial race.

Let's get an update of betting trends so far this season as the tide is turning for 'total' bettors who have lost early on by playing 'under'.

Home teams are still cashing tickets at a clip just under 70% (74-28-2-2) but remember that when you're getting the better quality teams you're going to have to pay a premium. For instance, if you want to play the Ducks tonight you'll have to lay -200. To put that in perspective, if Blue Jackets beat Anaheim you'll have to win three games just to make a profit. So, yes, the Ducks are the better of the two teams but is it really worth the risk?

Betting the puck-line has always revealed an impressive record as teams getting +1.5 are cashing tickets at a rate of 67% (71-35) but as we dig deeper we see that if you want to grab the +1.5 with the Hurricanes tonight you'll layover -300 to do so. Columbus -170, +1.5, is the best option but you're not getting a quality team. As a result, the Jackets/Ducks game would be a match-up that I would automatically throw out because it doesn't offer any value.

Remember when the 'overs' cashed at an alarming rate to start the year? Well, like usual, everything comes back around. 'Overs' have a slight record lead 49-47 but when you factor in the moneyline for each play, the 'under' has been the right side. 

The betting public are sure a bunch of people who love to bet on what they last saw. Tonight, we are not going to be blinded by the Calgary Flames two-game winning streak or the fact that Ottawa Goaltender, Craig Anderson, has left the team to tend to a personal matter. The Senators have received balanced scoring and are creating scoring chances as well as anyone in the league. I'm high on the Senators and I'm going to grab them at a plus price. 

Make sure to always shop for the best line but as it appears now in hockey odds that the best hockey pick tonight is to back the Senators.

 

Free NHL Odds: Ottawa Senators +112 

Best Line Offered: at Matchbook

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