Free NHL Picks - Lightning To Strike Down The Penguins

Tampa Bay Lightning players celebrating

Saturday, December 10, 2016 5:12 PM GMT

Let's look at some strong trends affecting today's card to be able to get the most valuable NHL pick for tonight's action between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay.

2015-2016 NHL Selection Record:   30-23   .566   +15.15 units

@DanaLaneSports  @DanaLaneNHL

 

What We Learned

Last night we cranked out another home underdog winner as the Anaheim Ducks +108 took down the San Jose Sharks at the Honda Center.  Tonight we get another home dog as the number is way too high not to take. First, let's look at some trends that affect tonight's games.  Keep in mind these should not be the basis for making a selection but it's fun to see. Trends should only go 3-5 games deep to use as a serious consideration. 

 

Betting Trends

The game of the night is Philadelphia and Dallas from a wagering perspective, meaning this is the lowest money line on the board according to SBR approved sportsbooks. The Flyers are just -121 so it's an attractive option to start.  From the Dallas side, the Stars are just 3-14 in their last 17 games following a win and 3-14 in their last 17 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 

The Flyers are 19-7 against the Central Division and have won seven straight. This is the reason why the majority of tickets have been written on the Flyers but interestingly enough the bigger money has been on the Stars pushing this number down.  This match-up is usually a low scoring affair with the 'under' cashing 17 of their last 24 meetings with a 'push'.  This is a situation where I would go against trends and side with Dallas.

The Calgary Flames are -123 over the Winnipeg Jets.  This another example of the public betting on the Flames but the large money is pushing that number way down as it opened Flames -140.

My recommendation on this game is to bet it now because the value in the number is already gone but there isn't any value in ripping up losing tickets so Winnipeg is still the side I'd look to. 

Here's an example of a long-term trend not reflecting how a team is currently performing.  The Jets are 17-35 the next game after their opponents score two goals or less in their previous game.  Pretty cool trend except it doesn't really apply to the Jets now who have won seven of their last nine against the Pacific Division and nine of 13 against the Western Conference.  For this reason, if I was a trend player the current trend is the most telling. 

 

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning 

Tonight the Lightning are an attractive home underdog at +131. The pens have been a bit inconsistent after a solid defensive effort in their previous game dropping four of their last five after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. Tampa is 7-1 off of a home loss of three goals or more, we're taking the Lightning to bounce back against the defending champions.

 

Free NHL Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning +131

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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