Free NHL Picks for Canucks vs. Maple Leafs

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, February 8, 2014 12:53 PM GMT

The Maple Leafs host the Canucks on Saturday at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto with the opening puck drop slated for 6:05 PM ET. Find out where our handicapper believes we should be placing our cash for our NHL picks.

According to NHL betting odds Toronto is a -140 money line home favorite and the posted total is 5.5. Vancouver has won the last 11 meetings between these two clubs. These teams have seen 18 of their last 26 meetings go over the total.

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Can’t Put the Puck in the Ocean

The Vancouver Canucks enter tonight having lost their last 6-games in a row. The Canucks have scored just 10-goals combined during that 6-game span, and scored 2-goals or less in 5 of those 6 contests. Tonight will be the final of a 5-game in 10-day home stand for the Canucks. The Canucks special teams have been on the opposite sides of the spectrum this season. Their penalty killing has been very good ranking 5th in the NHL with a stellar 84.5% efficiency rating. Their power play hasn’t been nearly as good ranking 26th in the league, converting on just 14.1% of their man advantage opportunities.

Inside the Canucks Numbers

  • The Canucks are 8-19 versus the money line this season versus opponents with a winning record.
  • The Canucks are a dismal 1-12 in the 2nd half of their schedule over the last 2 seasons, versus opponents with a winning record.
  • The Canucks have gone under the total in 18 of their 26-games this season (excluding pushes), versus opponents that average 29.5 or more shots on goal per game.
  • The Canucks have gone under the total in 16 of 24-games this season (excluding pushes), versus opponents that convert on 19% or better of their power play chances.

Go Leafs Go!

Toronto fans have to be ecstatic with the way their team has performed since the 2nd week of January. The Leafs have gone 10-3 versus the money line in their last 13-games, and have earned at least 1-point in 11 of those 13 contests. They’re coming off an impressive 4-1 road win versus the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday. The win enabled the Leafs to keep pace with the Montreal Canadians who they’re tied with for 3rd in the Atlantic Division, and also move them within 1-point of Tampa Bay for 2nd overall in the Eastern Conference. The Leafs continue to play at a high level despite being the worst in the NHL allowing 36.3 shots on goal per game. The Toronto power play is 3rd in the NHL converting on an excellent 22.6% of their man advantage opportunities. The Leafs are 20-11 versus the money line at the Air Canada Centre this season.

Inside the Leafs Numbers

  • The Leafs have gone over the total in 20 of 29-games this season (excluding pushes), versus opponents with a losing money line record, including 9 of 11 since game 42 of the year.
  • The Leafs have gone 11-2 this year when playing with same season revenge stemming from a loss by 2-goals or more.
  • The Leafs have gone 11-3 at home this season after playing on the road in their previous game.
  • The Leafs have gone over the total in 11 of 12-games this year when playing with same season revenge.
  • The Leafs have gone over the total in 20 of 29 games this season following a win.

NHL Betting System

Any home team with a total of 5.5 that’s playing on a Saturday, and is coming off a win versus a division opponent, has gone over the total in 41 of those 62-games (66.1%) over the last 5 seasons. This matchup to go over the total of 5.5 for our NHL picks.

NHL Pick: Vancouver/Toronto to go over the total of 5.5