Free NHL Pick - Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche

Colorado Avalanche players celebrating

Saturday, December 3, 2016 9:43 PM GMT

Expert capper Dana Lane breaks down the game with the most value on Saturday's card to get your NHL predictions ready!. It's time for NHL referee betting trends as well.

2016-2017 NHL Pick Record:   29-21   .580   +16.50 units
@DanaLaneSports   @DanaLaneNHL 

 

What We Learned

The Calgary Flames gave us another plus money winner last night as a +131 underdog.  With the win, we have yet another bankroll high.  I hope by now our slow and steady approach is padding your bottom line.  It's not always easy because betting on sports is so much more than wins and losses, it's really a discipline.  Most can't stay focused so they make out of character decisions which basically is a way to dig a bigger hole with a bigger shovel.  This isn't always easy but you have to have the mindset that this is your business at the very least. You don't ever see corporations doubling down to make up for a previous month's loss.  They don't take from one business to fund another.  Same with your bankroll.  Keep your money separate per sport and don't ever use your NHL bankroll to cover NFL losses. 

 

Betting Trends

Let's take a quick look at NHL referee trends pertaining to NHL betting.  This is often overlooked but its a huge part of the game.  We tend to put way more emphasis on handicapping MLB umpires but the impact is the same.  

From a puck-line perspective, Jean Herbert has given the most ROI by far.  In his 17 games, the favorite is 12-5 returning $1,593 to a $100 player.  That means the favorite wins and usually, covers the -1.5. Mike Leggo is next at 14-8, +1,036, followed by Wes McCauley at +791.  Interesting about McCauley is the favorites are just 11-10 but his record would indicate that he gets the better games which give a better puck-line return with the favorite.

Brian Pochmara has an amazing 'over' record as 14 of his 17 assignments have cashed an 'over' ticket with a return of $1,205.  His games average 6.4 goals.  Next best is Ian Walsh whose games average 6.2 goals as 13 of his 20 games have gone over the total.  Brad Watson is next at 12-7, +$566 ROI.

 

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche

So where do we find who tonight's officials are going to be?  The best option is a site called 'Scouting the Officials'.  It will give you daily referee assignments as well as detailed statistics for each.  It's valuable site if you're interested in wagering on the NHL from an official perspective.

Tonight the public is on the Dallas Stars which is goods for us as we've seen this number get pushed all the way to the Stars being the favorite. Again, name recognition is driving this with the Stars who have lost four of their last five games.  I will always look at a home 'dog' against a struggling team. 

 

Free NHL Pick: Colorado Avalanche +105

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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