Free NHL Pick - Calgary Flames vs N.Y. Islanders

Zack Smith #15 and Matt Puempel #26 of the Ottawa Senators

Monday, November 28, 2016 7:56 PM GMT

Read why betting trends can be a losing practice. Also join expert capper as he explains why we are going to Brooklyn for tonight's NHL pick.

 

Official 2016-2017 NHL Record:   25-20   .556   +12.77  units

 

What We Learned

The last few nights have not been where we'd like it to be but that's the way it goes sometimes. The best part about it is we've been steady with our plays and we haven't chased loses with big favorites. That's a sure way to dig a bigger hole. Instead, we still sit at a nice win percentage and our units are exactly where they should be at this time of year. Unfortunately, we only have two games to choose from tonight but as we say, I get paid to have an opinion. 

 

Betting Trend

First, let's examine a typical tool that the public uses to make their wagers. 

I get questions regarding betting trends and my reaction is always mixed. It really depends on the type of trends you're using and how long they remain a relevant way to predict hockey games. Let's see how trends can affect the two games tonight.

The Dallas Stars travel to St. Louis to take on the Blues. As we dive past applicable numbers to this match-up we find that the Dallas Stars are an impressive 20-6 when coming off of more than two days rest. Is this a relevant number? No, because very rarely should we take a previous seasons results and apply them to the current season. The dynamics of a team changes rendering the trend useless. Of the 26 games, only three have occurred this season. We can agree that this year's version of the Dallas Stars is much different than last. A better trend would be how have they preformed in those three games this year. They are 3-0 this season with two days rest. I put much more into the 3-0 than I put into the other 23. 

The Blues are 83-38 vs teams with a losing record over their last 121 games. Looks like an amazing trend but I put much more into the Blues winning five of their last six. 

 

The Pick

The Calgary Flames travel to Brooklyn to take on the Islanders. Some impressive trends include the Flames being 21-44 in their last 65 games in a three games in four nights situation.  The Islanders are 24-11 in their last 25 games against the Western Conference.  Neither should be a reason to bet on this game.  The trends cover too much time.

Trends are great but let's keep them inside the current season and in the last ten games range. 

The Calgary Flames are playing the last of a six-game road trip that has them 3-2 so far. I would tend to think that Calgary might want to just get the trip over and play sloppy hockey but I see Glen Gulutzan's team turning a corner. These game have always been tight checking affairs and tonight will be no different as we are able to get a +120 betting the 'under' 5. Bet the under for your NHL picks.

 

Free NHL Pick: Under 5

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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