Flyers Ground the Stars to Extend Streak

Dana Lane

Saturday, December 16, 2017 5:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 16, 2017 5:13 PM UTC

The Philadelphia Flyers look for their sixth straight victory when the Dallas Stars visits the Wells Fargo Center; puck drops at 7:00 PT / 4:00 PT

Dallas Stars vs Philadelphia Flyers

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Free NHL Pick: Philadelphia Flyers -114Best Line Offered: at Matchbook

The New York Rangers had us running to cashier’s cage again last night with a 4-2 win against the Los Angeles Kings. My readers and sportsbooks were happy with this result as both professional bettors and the public were on the Kings. According to the SBR odds page the ticket count indicated a slight ticket and money lean on the Kings. It pays to read this column every day.

Let’s visit the ‘City of brotherly love’ for tonight’s winner.

Early betting indicates a split in opinion. The public jumped on the Flyers (-118) with over 51% of wagers coming in on Philly but professional money has engulfed those wagers pushing the number down to -118. I get asked a lot, what’s the win percentage difference between professional and public money. The answer is very little. If you blindly followed the public you would lose at a faster rate than betting with the money, but in the end, you would still lose, it’s just at a slower pace with professionals. That doesn’t mean they lose money because they have enough of it to cover losses and they manage it better. That’s why I try to find spots that allow me to be on a team that neither, the ‘Joes’ or ‘Pros’ like. Today is the exception.

There is usually a big gap between the way a team plays at home versus how they play on the road. You can’t allow yourself to think of a team one way because travel mixes up daily routine and opens the door for fatigue to set in and the door gets wider as the trip goes on. On neutral ice there is no doubt that the Dallas Stars are better than Philadelphia, ranked 6th in my current power rankings. However, on the road Dallas is a team that can’t get to the .500 mark (8-10-1) so we have to change the way we handicap them. I look for indicators that teams are looking forward to getting home, like penalty minutes.

In their loss to the New Jersey Devils, Dallas had 22 minutes of penalties leading to five Devil power plays. That’s more than double their per game average of 10:34. If you watched, the game was physical and dirty at times leading to 40 total penalty minutes; I can’t play the Stars coming off a game like that especially when their focus may be on their big match-up with the Chicago Blackhawks next week.

Ben Bishop gets the Start for Dallas in goal with Brian Elliot confirmed for the Flyers. Bishop hasn’t played since allowing four goals on 38 shots in a road loss to the Vegas Golden Knights a week ago. The road hasn’t been kind to Bishop as he’s built a mediocre 4-6 record, supported his 3.55 goals against average and a horrible .885 save percentage in 11 starts.

Elliot’s overall numbers aren’t great but lately he’s been worth the financial backing. He has won his last five starts allowing less than two goals in each. Elliot hasn’t lost back to back games in regulation in over a month.

Let’s ride with Philly tonight.



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