Flames vs. Oilers Game 3 NHL Picks: Expect The Goalfest to Continue in Edmonton

The Battle of Alberta shifts to Edmonton on Sunday night. The Edmonton Oilers bounced back to win Game 2 and now host the Calgary Flames with the series tied. Check out our Flames-Oilers picks.

This was one of the most anticipated matchups in the playoffs, and it’s been the most exciting series thus far.

The Oilers came back from a 5-1 deficit in Game 1 but ultimately lost 9-6. They once again found themselves in a multi-goal hole in Game 2. However, they battled back with four unanswered goals to win 5-3.

The series now shifts to Edmonton. Connor McDavid has continued to be dominant in the playoffs for the Oilers, while Mike Smith has been hit or miss in net. For Calgary, Jacob Markstrom was one of the best goalies in the regular season but hasn’t played to that level against Edmonton.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s Game 3 showdown between the Flames and Oilers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

SEE ALSO: NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Series Lines and Picks

Flames vs. Oilers Game Info

Date: Sunday, May 22, 8:00 p.m. ETTV: ESPN2, CBC, TVAS, SNLocation: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB

Flames vs. Oilers Odds Analysis

The Oilers opened as slight home underdogs (+110) after their Game 2 win, but they’ve received most of the tickets and handle. Edmonton is now down to -105 at some books, but you can get even money at DraftKings and BetMGM. Calgary is down to -117 at Unibet after opening at -143.

There have been 23 goals through two games, with both going Over 7.5 goals. The total for Game 3 opened at 6.5, with the Over heavily favored at -135 and the Under 6.5 at +115. It’s still there at DraftKings and BetMGM but has moved up to seven at some books. You can get Over 7 (+114) at FanDuel and Under 7 (-125) at Unibet.

Flames vs. Oilers Picks

Oilers (+100 via DraftKings) ???Over 7 (+114 via FanDuel) ????Connor McDavid to score (+112 via FanDuel) ????

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Flames vs. Oilers Predictions

Oilers (+100)

This should be a long series, and home-ice advantage has been important for these two teams. The Oilers are 30-13-2 at home (24-17-5 on the road) while the Flames are 26-14-4 on the road (29-11-7 at home). The home team has won six of the last seven meetings overall, and the Flames are also 1-6 in the last seven matchups in Edmonton.

Calgary outplayed Edmonton in Game 1, partially because Smith put the Oilers in an early hole. But the Oilers went toe-to-toe with the Flames in the second and third periods of that game. That continued in Game 2, with each team getting 40 shots on goal and the Oilers prevailing 5-3.

The Flames had the better of the shot attempts (53-35) and shots on goal (28-22) at five-on-five but barely had an advantage in scoring chances (22-20) and expected goals (2.06-1.52), according to Natural Stat Trick. Edmonton was able to penetrate Calgary’s defense and get shots from the higher-danger areas.

Home ice will allow McDavid and the Oilers’ top players to get more favorable matchups. McDavid has 20 points in nine playoff games. He was held off the scoresheet in only one game and put up multiple points in the other eight.

Over 7 (+114)

These teams have been scoring goals galore, and I’m willing to get the plus-odds while risking the push. In six meetings during the regular season and playoffs, there were eight or more goals in four of them. There were exactly seven goals in one, and four goals in the other (in Calgary).

After defensive battles against inferior teams in the first round, these two teams are enjoying the back-and-forth action in Round 2. There have been 23 total goals, with the teams going a combined 3-for-18 on the power play. That’s bound to pick up to help the Over, too.

McDavid to score (+112)

McDavid has a goal in five straight games and six of nine in the playoffs, including in three of four at home. Big-time players show up in the playoffs, and McDavid is the best in the world. I’m almost surprised this is at plus-odds.

Where to Bet on Flames-Oilers Picks

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Flames-Oilers picks made on 5/22/2022 at 12:55 a.m. ET.