Flames & Leafs will Blow Over the Total

Leafs vs Falmes

Dana Lane

Tuesday, November 28, 2017 5:16 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2017 5:16 PM UTC

Toronto starts a road trip with hopes that they can turn their recent form around as they visit the Scotia Bank Saddledome to face the Calgary Flames; puck drops at 9:00 ET / 6:00 PT

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames

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Free NHL Pick: OVER 6Best Line Offered: at Matchbook

As stated on this morning’s ‘Ice Guys Show’ the Calgary Flames have to be happy to finally be home after a successful road trip that saw Calgary finish 3-2-1. The Flames have not been home in two weeks so I anticipate that they’ll play well in the first game of their four game homestand. I often talk about team playing their best on the first game of a road trip but I think it works for some teams when they come back home from a lengthy time on the road, especially if they haven’t played well at home prior. Teams seem to come back with a sense of renewal. There is a focus and emphasis on getting the stretch of home games off to a good start. This is a game by game handicap theory because as we know the Leafs are on the first game of their trip but I’m relying on my faith that Glen Gulutzan will have his team prepared.

There’s so much discussion about the effectiveness of Leafs top line of Auston Mathews, Zach Hyman and William Nylander (51 pts this season) but Calgary’s top line of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Micheal Ferlund (74 pts) has been much better with very little attention. This match-up will provide Johnny Gaudreau with plenty of room on the left side against William Nylander. Gaudreau is a better skater than Nylander and will use that advantage to create scoring opportunities.

If you look at current form you could make a case for the Flames second line being better than Toronto’s too. Patrick Marleau and Nazem Kadri have 18 points in their last 10 games but in that time Leo Komorov has just 1 assist and has added nothing in his last five games. Komorov will be matched up against Mathew Tkachuk who has seven points in 10 games. He’ll share a line with Mikael Backlund 10 points and Michael Frolik who both have been a point a game players in recent form. The Tkachuk line has tremendous chemistry and I think that continues tonight.

That’s not to say that the Leafs won’t do their part to push this OVER. The Leafs have scored more total goals than any other team and are 4th in goals per game.

If we remember some of my rules along the way, I will almost never bet an OVER if I don’t feel like I’m getting going to get solid power play units, especially with the number at six but in this case both teams are converting over 22% of their power play chances with neither teams penalty kill being particularly good, Calgary is dead last while the leafs settle in at 15th on the kill.

I’m on the OVER in this one; If you’d like to check out my selection on who will win go to the ‘Ice Guys’ archive to watch our show from this morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tJgaxhoxPw

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