Finding The Best NHL Pick For Sharks vs. Predators Game Five

Dana Lane

Saturday, May 7, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 7, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Will game five be sloppy after a triple overtime marathon? Where's the betting value for this game? Read on to answer these and get a profitable NHL Pick for this Saturday's late NHL Game.

So far home ice advantage has held serve unfortunately for San Jose relying on home ice success has been tricky this season as they had the worst home record of any of the playoff participants at 18-20-3. 

We are going to look to the total in this one because it seems the majority of money is coming in on the 'under'. The NHL odds opened at -114 shaded to the 'over' and now sits at -105 either way. I can understand the logic after a triple overtime game four in which the Predators tied the series at two a piece. Most would expect a sloppy game lacking offensive continuity but I anticipate the opposite.

Keep in mind lethargic play is the gateway to scoring opportunities. Teams make bad passes, not being as effective on the penalty kill, or allowing easy access to opposing forwards. Don't get too caught up on the Sharks just because they're back in California. I think the 'sloppy factor' effects the home team the most because they are a comfortable environment without that extra adrenaline rush from traveling which is why I'm backing the Predators at +1/2 -123 with the first period 'under' 1.5 -154.

Nashville, who have never advanced past the second round, received an outstanding performance by goaltender Pekka Rinne who finished with 44 saves in game four. Rinne, who was 34-21-10 in the regular season has been plagued by consistency problems so even though he seems to be playing much better now that the Stanley Cup playoffs have started I still need to see more to be comfortable especially with Pete DeBoer unfazed by bringing his defensemen into the offensive zone as his top two pairing have contributed offensively. Roman Josi has four points in his last three games, Shea Webber scored in game three his first in five games, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm have three points in their last two games. 

The Nashville penalty kill looked great at home allowing just one power play goal in nine chances, but let's not forget how the Sharks were 3 for 5 with the extra attacker in games one and two at home. 

In game four both team combined to take over 92 shots on goal as both teams opened it up more after combining for just 52 shots in game three. Part of that was obviously because game four went to triple overtime but overall I felt that both teams had a lot of space to work with.

From a trends perspective the San Jose Sharks have won 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and are 7-3 overall. The 'over' is 5-2-5 in Nashville's last 12 road games and 5-2-1 in their last eight against teams with a winning record. 

The Sharks may have a poor home record but in this series home/road splits don't mean as much. We documented how bad the Sharks record is at Bridgestone Arena even though they own a 28-10-3 road record. The home team in this series has now won 40 of the last 58 meetings. Something to think about making your NHL picks.

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Free NHL Pick: Predators at +½ -123 & 1H Under 1½ -154
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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