Fade the Public & Pick Rangers vs. Capitals to Go 'Over' the Total Tonight

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, May 6, 2015 11:03 AM UTC

Wednesday, May. 6, 2015 11:03 AM UTC

Our red-hot NHL handicapping professional previews Game 4 of the playoff series between the Rangers and Capitals on Wednesday. Read this highly informative betting article which concludes with a pick on the total.

Pivotal Game 4 in Rangers and Capitals Series
The Washington Capitals will attempt to take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they host the New York Rangers on Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET. According to the NHL betting odds at 5Dimes, Washington is a -114 money line favorite, and the posted total is 4.5. These teams have gone 2-0-1 under the total in this series, and there’s been a combined average of 3.0 goals per game scored. Since the start of the 2012-2013 NHL campaign, these teams have faced each other ten times at the Verizon Center in Washington, and those contests went 7-1-2 under the total.


Both Teams playing on the low Side of the Number
Since the start of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Washington Capitals have gone 7-2-1 under the total, and that includes 7-1-1 under in the nine games in which Braden Holtby was their starting goaltender. Speaking of Holtby, he’s compiled a terrific .949 save percentage in his nine postseason starts. In his three starts during this Eastern Conference Semifinals series he’s been even better with a .959 save percentage. The Washington power play was the best in the NHL during the regular season, but they’ve failed to attain the same success during the playoffs, going a less than impressive 3-for-18 (16.7%) with the man advantage. However, their penalty killing has been spectacular during the postseason, turning away 21 of 22 (95.5%) of power play chances by their opponents.

The New York Rangers have gone 6-1-1 under the total during the 2015 NHL Playoffs. They’ve scored two goals or less in six of those eight postseason games, and also allowed two or less in seven of the eight. The Rangers star goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has been a key contributor to the low scoring playoff affairs, posting an outstanding .940 save percentage during that time. The Rangers power play has gone a dismal 4-for-28 (14.3%) during the postseason. Contrarily their penalty killing has been very good in killing off 83.3% of man advantage opportunities by the opposition.


Final Analysis
I’ve spent the majority of my time in this preview article detailing the defensive prowess of both teams during these 2015 playoffs, and also mentioning each team’s lack of power play efficiency during that time. Any novice handicapper can read the same information that I have, and would be led to believe that going under the total is a mortal lock. All you need to do is look at the early betting trends to see that bettors have been undeterred by the books lowing the total to 4.5 for Game 3, yet they continue to pound the under by an overwhelming margin. My personal experience has shown me that when it pertains to sports betting, if it looks that easy, more times than not it isn’t. I’m going to fade the public on this total when making my NHL picks for Wednesday.

NHL Pick: Rangers and Capitals to go over the total of 4.5 at Pinnacle.

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