Breaking Down 3 Early Surprise Teams in the NHL

There are always early surprise teams in the NHL, but is there any value in betting on them at this point?

There are three NHL teams that missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season that have a points percentage over .600 this season. Those teams are the Calgary Flames, New York Rangers, and Columbus Blue Jackets.

All three teams have new head coaches — if we stipulate that the Flames made their coaching change partway through last season — bringing in Darryl Sutter to replace Geoff Ward. The New York Rangers hired Gerard Gallant to take the reins from David Quinn and the Columbus Blue Jackets hired Brad Larsen to take over from John Tortorella.

Let’s take a look inside the numbers for those three early surprise teams in the NHL to see whether their strong starts are sustainable.

Early-Season NHL Surprises

Calgary Flames

Naturally, with Sutter taking over as head coach, the Flames play a different brand of hockey. Sutter has a well-established reputation for coaching teams that grind the opposition to dust, and he won Stanley Cups in Los Angeles using that approach.

This season, the Flames have the lowest rate of shot attempts (48.3) against per 60 minutes of score-and-venue-adjusted 5-on-5 play. The Flames are not giving up high-quality shots either, as they rank second in expected goals against, with 1.97 per 60 minutes. This is Darryl Sutter Hockey.

The big difference for the Flames, though, is that their goaltending has been dramatically better. Last season, during 5v5 play, the Flames had a .915 save percentage, which ranked 20th. That is not disastrous, but it is below average. This season, the Flames have a .954 5v5 SV%, the best in the league. The game is entirely different when the goaltenders are turning away more than 95% of 5v5 shots.

The goaltending tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Daniel Vladar has been incredible and while it is virtually assured that there will be regression coming for that save percentage, the fact that the Flames are allowing the lowest rate of shot attempts and the second-lowest rate of expected goals during 5v5 play should ensure that this team does not run into long-term problems.

They are +170 on FanDuel to win the Pacific Division, as the Edmonton Oilers are still considered division favorites, and +1000 to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. Maybe they won’t continue on a 119-point pace. But out of all the early surprise teams in the NHL, the Flames are for real.

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New York Rangers

The Rangers hired Gerard Gallant in the offseason and made quite a few changes geared towards improving team toughness. So far this season, the new-look Rangers get outshot and out-chanced even more than they did last season. That this is happening for the team with the reigning Norris Trophy winner, Adam Fox, in the lineup does not speak well to their systemic play.

Nevertheless, what the Rangers have going for them is that goalie Igor Shesterkin has been one of the best in the league so far, recording a .932 SV% in 15 games. This does not mean automatically that the Rangers are going to collapse. However, they are the only team in the Top 10 in points percentage that is on the wrong end of shot attempts and expected goals.

Maybe Shesterkin is good enough to keep bailing them out. But at the very least, the Blueshirts should come with a buyer beware tag. The Rangers are +500 on FanDuel to win the Metropolitan Division, and +1300 to represent the Eastern Conference in the NHL's Stanley Cup Final.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets were a listless bunch last season, so improvement was likely. It would have been hard to be worse. Last season, the Blue Jackets were under 46% of 5v5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and expected goals. This season, those numbers have moved north of 49%. That is still on the wrong end of the shot share but is much more respectable.

Close enough that strong goaltending could make a difference. During 5v5 play, the Blue Jackets have a .920 SV%, which is a little below average, ranking 18th. Blue Jackets goalie Elvis Merzlikins has an all-situations .926 SV% in 11 games, which is well above average. The problem for Columbus is that Joonas Korpisalo and his .894 SV% are well below average.

The general takeaway on the Blue Jackets is to be skeptical of their early success because a lot of it is tied to goaltending. However, the prices on FanDuel indicate that there are not a lot of Blue Jackets believers. Columbus is +5000 on Fan Duel to win the Metropolitan Division, the longest odds in the division, even though they are currently fourth in points percentage.

Coaching changes don’t automatically bring better results. Coaching changes and improved goaltending? That is another matter entirely, but the Jackets are certainly one of the NHL's early surprise teams.

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