Devils vs. Flyers: 'Under' 5 is the NHL Pick on Tonight's Rivalry

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 29, 2015 3:50 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015 3:50 PM GMT

Our NHL consultant breaks down Thursday’s game between the Devils & Flyers. Join us in reading this informative betting preview article which includes a NHL pick on the total.

NHL Division Battle in “The City of Brotherly Love”
The Flyers and Devils get together for an Atlantic Division matchup on Thursday. The opening faceoff at the First Union Center in Philadelphia is slated for 7:05 PM ET. At the time of this writing, NHL odds indicate that Philadelphia is a -145 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.0. Tonight will be the first game this season played between these division rivals. New Jersey took three of four from Philadelphia a season ago, and three of those four also went over the total.

 

Pertinent Betting Notes
Since the start of the 2013-2014 NHL campaign, the New Jersey Devils have gone 48-28 (63.2%) under the total in road games. During that same time frame, they’re 11-1 under the total when facing an opponent that averages 2.40 or less goals per game. Philadelphia fits that exact criteria (2.38 GPG) for today’s contest.

Despite allowing 4 goals at home to Buffalo on Tuesday, the Flyers have allowed just 8 combined in their first five in Philadelphia. Their power play has been anemic thus far on home ice, evidenced by going 1-for-17 (6.2%) on its man advantage situations. After getting off to a rough beginning to the season, goaltender Steve Mason has shown very good form over his previous four starts with a .922 save percentage.

 

NHL Totals Betting Angle
Let’s not get mislead by the recent history of high scoring games played between these teams. We also can’t be enticed by the fact that Philadelphia has scored 3 goals or more in each of their previous three games. After all, despite that scoring binge, Philadelphia is still averaging only 2.38 goals per game thus far.  NHL betting history has proven that going over the total in this exact situation pertaining to tonight’s game is a losing proposition.

Any home team (Philadelphia) with a total of 5.0 or less, averaging 2.55 or less goals per game, and they scored 3 goals or more in each of their previous three games, resulted in that home team going 88-47 (65.2%) under the total since 1996. This NHL betting algorithm clearly speaks volumes, and one of my NHL picks today will be further evidence of that theory.

NHL Pick: Under 5 (-125) at 5Dimes  

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