Defenses to Take Night Off as Flyers Visit Islanders

Tuesday, April 3, 2018 3:26 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 3, 2018 3:26 PM UTC

Philly and New York usually play high-scoring games, with the "over" cashing in their last four meetings. The Flyers also go "over" in most of their divisional matchups.

NHL Tuesday: Flyers vs. IslandersFree NHL Pick: Over 6.5, -110Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3217056, "sportsbooksIds":[19,999996,169,93,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The New York Islanders (32-37-10, 74 points, -35 goal differential) are as bad defensively as they are good offensively, so it’s always reasonable to anticipate a large amount of goals in their games. The Islanders' power play has been fantastic, scoring 13 goals in their last nine games. When betting totals, especially an "over," you must make sure you’re getting two power-play units that can give you a few goals so there isn’t so much reliance on five-on-five success.

Hanging on to the first wild-card spot in the East are the Philadelphia Flyers (40-25-14, 94, +3). Philly leads New Jersey by just one point for that spot, although both are likely to make the playoffs; it's just a matter of positioning.

Petr Mrazek (14-12-6, .903, 2.97) is the Flyers' probable starter tonight, while Thomas Greiss (11-8-2, .891, 3.85) will be in net for the Islanders. The puck drop for this Metropolitan Division clash is at 7 ET.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Nobody does it quite like our Captain...

Check out all of the highlights from yesterday's OT win over Boston: @EASPORTSNHL

— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) April 2, 2018

The last time these teams met was January 4, and the "over" cashed with about 6 minutes left in the second period when Travis Konecny's goal gave the Flyers a 5-2 lead. Philly went on to win 6-4 thanks to two goals and six assists from their blue line in a penalty-filled game.

According to the NHL odds board, the Islanders are getting some love at the betting window after the Flyers opened as -165 road favorites. The public is always more than happy to take the home dog at such a price even if it means getting a team that is 23rd at home in goals allowed. The side is of no interest to be because I’m not laying that kind of price with the Flyers and I’m not crossing my fingers that the Islanders do something they couldn’t do for much of the season.

People see a large total and immediately bet the "under" blindly. Such is the case tonight where we see a huge total of 6.5 posted, compelling people to bet the "under." Good for us as we have to lay only -115 now as opposed to the -125 earlier.

The Islanders' horrific defensive play has been well documented, but they also have a top line (Anders Lee, John Tavares and Jordan Eberle) that averages 33 goals and 34 assists. New York is ninth in home scoring this season but ranks 23rd in goals allowed at home, while the Flyers rank 25th in goals allowed on the road at 3.17 per game.

The "over" is 20-7 in the Flyers' last 27 games against Metro Division opponents. With your NHL picks, expect that trend to continue tonight.

comment here