Daily NHL Picks: Friday's Trio Of Winning Selections

Doug Upstone

Friday, March 11, 2016 7:47 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 11, 2016 7:47 PM GMT

When you study the NHL odds like I do every day in hockey, you are going to have some rough spots. It is inevitable and unavoidable no matter what strategy you use for making picks.

As you have learned by now, my way is mostly taking favorites on the money line and while the rough patches erode profits from time to time, baring an enormous collapse for NHL picks, I will be profitable for a fourth straight year.

The idea is not to panic, stay the course and when you have days like today which feature highly competitive or games you would normally pass on, I seek the one or two factors which could swing the NHL odds in my favor.

 

Lightning Prove Tough in Quick Turnaround
In team sports like hockey, when you go on long winning streaks and then you finally lose, frequently on loss turns into and two sometimes more. Tampa Bay (39-28 SU) saw their nine-game winning stretch come to an end at Philadelphia (31-34 SU) on Monday and the two nights later they fell to Boston 1-0. If Tampa Bay is the kind of team we think they are, they put those defeats behind them and come ready for action against Flyers group who has won seven of 10 and moved within three points of Pittsburgh for last wild card spot.

Why I don't mind taking the Lightning here is besides the revenge aspect in short window, they are 9-0 at home against the Flyers and their confidence will be high. Tampa Bay has been a club that shows they can bounce back from adversity and is 19-3 after two or more consecutive losses the last two seasons.

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NHL Pick: Tampa Bay -160
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Calgary in Pick Your Poison Special
Both Arizona (28-39 SU) and Calgary (28-39 SU) have been in humongous slumps, with no end in sight. Sure, they will pick off a win here and there like this contest, but they have weaknesses that were masked early but are on full display these days.

It is not hard to understand why there two teams are in the throes of lengthy periods of non-winning with the Coyotes last in goals allowed at 3.12 and the Flames just in front of them at 3.09. Arizona has lost a franchise-worst 10 games in a row away from home and has the numbers prove why. The Yotes are 29th in goals given up (3.17) and 28th in scoring (2.15), not exactly a winning combination to seeking to find a winner.

Yet Calgary does not offer much to pull the trigger on them, losers of three straight to Arizona this season and having the most deplorable special teams in the league by a wide margin. Why bother with these two crummy clubs, well, somebody has to win and the Coyotes are 7-27 coming off a one goal setback and since they have been busy, they are 3-16 in road games playing their four game in seven days this season.

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NHL Pick: Calgary -131
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Tight Low Scoring Affair in St. Louis
Consider this a hunch play backed with convincing numbers. No question some of my rationale is up for debate, but let me explain. Anaheim after a super stretch of offense has tallied only four goals in past three outings, not moving the puck enough side to side and they have looked stale. In the last four meetings between these clubs the UNDER is 4-2 and in particular in St. Louis, the past two have been scores of 2-1 and 2-0.

When I began digging for usable data, found out the Ducks are 8-1 UNDER in road games after scoring one goal or less in two straight games. This lead to finding the Blues are 8-0 UNDER off a Central Division triumph and the clincher, at least for me, was St. Louis is 12-0 UNDER off a division victory.

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NHL Pick: Under 5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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