Canes' & Red Wings Long Road Stretches Prompt an NHL Pick on the 'Under'

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 27, 2015 2:12 PM GMT

Our NHL handicapping professional breaks down Tuesday’s game between Carolina and Detroit. Join us in reading this insightful betting preview article, which ends with his NHL free pick on the total.

Hurricanes Enter “The Joe” on Tuesday
The Detroit Red Wings and Carolina Hurricanes get together on Tuesday in an Eastern Conference battle. The opening faceoff at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit is slated for 7:35 PM ET. The current (9:45 AM ET) NHL betting odds indicate that Detroit is a -149 money line favorite at Heritage, and the total is set at 5.0. This will be the third meeting of the season already between these clubs. They split the first two, and the road team won on each occasion. Both games easily went over the total of 5.0 with final scores of 5-3 and 4-3. It’s worth noting, Carolina outshot Detroit in those two encounters by a combined margin of 83-39.

 

Expected Starters in Goal
Veteran Cam Ward is expected to be in goal tonight for Carolina. Ward began the season in very shaky form, and recently has seemed to have turned the corner. In his last four starts, Ward compiled a stellar .924 save percentage with one shutout. On a negative note, Ward started both games against Detroit this season, and had a horrible .821 save percentage while allowing 7 goals.

According to our sources, Petr Mrazek is the probable starting goaltender for Detroit on Tuesday. Mrazek was brilliant in his lone start versus Carolina on 10/10, stopping 44 of 47 shots on goal during a 5-3 Red Wings win. He’s made four starts this season and posted a very good .925 save percentage.

 

Long Road Trip Continues for Canes
Tonight will be the sixth of a seven game in fourteen day road trip for Carolina. They’ve managed to go 2-3 in the first five. Ironically, this road swing began with a 5-3 win at Detroit. One area that’s in need of a vast improvement for Carolina is their power play. The Canes are an awful 3-for-32 (9.4%) this season with the man advantage. Another aspect of their game that needs cleaning up has been slow starts. Carolina has scored a grand total of one goal during the first period in their eight games. They’ve also been outscored 13-5 in the third period thus far.

 

“Home Sweet Home”
Detroit returns home for the first time since embarking on a four game in eight day road trip. They were able to snap a four game losing streak in the finale of that road swing by winning 3-2 at Vancouver on Saturday. The Red Wings will be without some key personnel on Tuesday, as Mike Green, Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk, and Johan Franzen are all sidelined by injuries.

 

Final Analysis
NHL betting history has shown, since 1996, that when teams face each other following extended periods on the road, more times than not, it produces low scoring games. Below is a literal illustration that exemplifies my point.

Any home team (Detroit) coming off of three straight road games, versus an opponent (Carolina) coming off of four consecutive road games, resulted in that home team going 101-55 (64.7%) under the total since 1996. There’s no sense in bucking this trend with all things being considered. I like this contest to be a low scoring affair for one of my NHL picks on Tuesday.

Free NHL Pick: Carolina and Detroit under 5.0 (+105) at 5Dimes.

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