Calgary vs. Ottawa: Stats Make Senators -145 the NHL Pick

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 5:16 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015 5:16 PM GMT

Our NHL handicapping professional provides us with a preview, between Calgary & Ottawa. Go inside to read his insightful analysis on this contest that also includes a NHL pick.

Flames vs. Senators
Calgary and Ottawa will square off Wednesday in a non-conference battle between playoff teams from a season ago. The opening faceoff at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa is slated for 7:35 PM ET. Current NHL odds indicate that Ottawa is a -150 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.5. These clubs split their two meetings a season ago with the home team winning on both occasions. Both of those games went over the total.

 

Two struggling Teams
For a first time in over a decade, there were high expectations heading into a season for the Calgary Flames. They were a Cinderella story last season by unexpectedly making the playoffs, and then advancing to the Western Conference Semifinals before being eliminated by Anaheim. They’re off to a terrible 2-7 start this season, and have lost six of their previous seven games. Wednesday will be the finale of a three game in four day East Coast road trip. They’ve lost the first two games of this excursion to the Islanders and Rangers while being outscored 8-1.

Similar to today’s opponent, a lot was being expected from the Ottawa Senators. They made an improbable playoff run a season ago by virtue of a torrid winning stretch over the final five weeks of regular season play. They then proceeded to upset the Montreal Canadiens during the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, before bowing out in their ensuing series against Tampa Bay. They enter tonight on a four game winless streak, and Wednesday will be the finale of a four game in twelve day home stand. On a positive note, Ottawa will be well rested compared to Calgary. This will be just third game in the last eleven days.

 

Probable Goaltenders
At the time of this writing, the expected starting goaltenders for tonight are Jonas Hiller for Calgary and Craig Anderson of Ottawa. Hiller has really struggled in his five starts in addition to one relief appearance, and that’s evidenced by a terrible .872 save percentage in those outings. Anderson is 3-3 in his six starts with a respectable .918 save percentage.

 

Money Line Betting Angle
Any money line favorite coming off two or more home losses in a row, versus an opponent coming off two or more road losses in a row, resulted in that favorite going 58-16 (78.4%) since 1996. That’s a strong betting angle which passes the test of time, and one that makes a lot of sense to me on many different fronts. I’m siding with the home favorite for one of my NHL picks on Wednesday.

NHL Pick: Senators -145 at 5Dimes

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