Bruins to End Maple Leafs' Season in Game 7 on Wednesday

Dana Lane

Tuesday, April 24, 2018 5:53 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 24, 2018 5:53 PM UTC

Boston is 21-6 in their last 27 home games, while Toronto is recently only 1-4 following a SU win. If those trends continue Wednesday, it will be the Bruins who continue their season.

NHL Wednesday: Maple Leafs vs. BruinsFree NHL Pick: Bruins -110 (Regulation Time)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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I didn’t see this series going the distance, but here we are at Game 7 for the right to play well-rested Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference semifinals. I don’t love making series predictions, but my record in this first round is 6-1, with the only setback coming when Columbus fell short against Washington.

Toronto stayed alive in Game 6, winning 3-1 at home as Frederik Andersen stopped 32 shots. The Bruins were getting hurt with the Leafs' stretch pass in transition, which is another example of how speed is your biggest asset. It doesn’t just mean you can skate fast north/south, it also means you can get yourself in a better position to receive the puck or simply make it difficult for the opposition to keep forwards out of high-danger areas. Toronto wanted it more behind a loud home crowd.

On Wednesday in Boston, we’ll see the better team ride the wave of its own home crowd. Leafs head coach Mike Babcock said his team likes clam chowder, and that comment will have the Bruins' faithful riled when the puck drops (7:30 ET; NBC Sports Network).

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Mighty Marner!#StandWitness | #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/Ry5S2kSPZl

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 24, 2018
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Boston opened as a -165 home favorite on the NHL odds board. If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that number is outside my comfort level because our focus should always be on managing a bankroll properly. It looks like that number is a good one considering we've seen very little movement. Depending on your opinion there are some shopping options; the Bruins are -160 at 5Dimes but -168 at Bookmaker and JustBet. As of Tuesday morning, 59% of all tickets written supported the Bruins. I’m with the public on this, but for our NHL picks my followers are going to find that regulation line that requires us to lay only -110.

The "total" opened at the expected 5.5, -115 ("under"), but the money suggests that line is wrong as it exploded the other way, forcing bettors to lay as much as -115 on the "over." I agree with this opinion but not nearly as much as the side. The "over" is now 10-2-4 in the Bruins' last 16 home games, while Toronto has cashed eight "overs" in their last 10 road games with one push (8-1-1).

Boston owns one of the best defensive teams in the league, which will be the reason they advance behind a bounce-back effort from goalie Tuukka Rask.

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