Bruins & Canadiens to Go 'Over' the Total Again

Dana Lane

Wednesday, January 17, 2018 1:28 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2018 1:28 PM UTC

Original Six teams Boston and Montreal combined for seven goals on Sunday; they’ll face off again at the TD Garden on Wednesday with a puck drop at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Montreal Canadiens at Boston BruinsFree NHL Pick: Over 5.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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We don’t have to use words like "bounce back" much, but that’s the predicament I find myself in as we’ve dropped two straight on these columns. The good news in we nailed our best-bet winner on the "Ice Guys Show," finishing 2-1 overall. Join us every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday at 9 a.m. ET.

Before we get into our Wednesday game, let’s give a quick update of where betting trends are this season.

Straight-up the home favorites are dominating with a 59% win percentage (315-165-43-13), but as we like to mention keep your wagers under -150 because anything more than that will cause you to have to hit more than 59% to break even. For example, if you lost two games at -180 you would have to win four straight games just to cover your losses. In other words, you would have to hit 67% to make a profit. You can’t just blindly wager on home favorites because a few losses will force you to hit at an extremely high percentage to just get your money back.

Home underdogs (+1.5) are 101-48 (67.79%). Impressive for sure, but losses can dig a huge hole that winning 68% of your plays can’t dig you out of. Take Tuesday night for example: To get +1.5 with the home team, you would have had to lay -280 with the Islanders, -272 with Detroit and -255 with Arizona. Only the Coyotes won their wager, so if your goal was to win $100 and wagered accordingly, you would have lost $452. You would then have to win 5 straight wagers to cover that or 75%. Again, don’t bet these blindly because there is very little long term financial security getting the +1.5.

OVERS are slightly ahead of UNDERS (337-335).

Wednesday will be the first time former Bruins head coach Claude Julien will return to the Garden since GM Don Sweeney thought it would be a great idea to let Julien go, which eventually led to him finding his way to Montreal. If you listen to Bruins netminder Tuukka Rask it will be just another game.

"Well, I can tell you what's going to happen," said Rask. "We're going to start the game, at some point there's going to be a video montage, we're going to tap our sticks and the crowd is going to clap their hands and give him a warm welcome. Then the game is going to continue."

I’m not buying that this is going to be the same as if Rask was facing the Coyotes on a random Tuesday. Both teams have the motivation to put on a show. Boston wants to beat its former coach, and Julien wants to show Bruce Cassidy that he’s still the big dog in Boston.

This game will be another high-scoring, entertaining affair like Boston's 4-3 shootout win in Montreal on Saturday.

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