Betting System Applied to Avalanche vs. Lightning Favors Home Dog Money Line for Your NHL Picks

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, February 22, 2015 4:53 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 22, 2015 4:53 PM UTC

There are eight games on the NHL board for Sunday, and we’ve isolated the best money line underdog value in one of those contests. Find out exactly why we’ve identified that specific game, and our article culminates with a NHL money line angle which has won 65.3% of the time since 1996, and further supports this selection.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche 7:05 PM ET
According to the NHL betting odds at Bookmaker, Tampa Bay is a -120 money line favorite.

For More Betting Options Check Out Our NHL Picks of the Day

End of the Road
Tonight will be the finale of a grueling five game in eight day road trip for the Tampa Bay Lightning. It’s certainly been a successful trek thus far, evidenced by the Lightning going 3-1 in the first four games of their journey. Sunday will also be the third game in four days for Tampa Bay, and that includes a contest last night at Arizona. Despite their recent success on the road, the Lightning is just 15-17 versus the money line in away games, and that’s in stark contrast to 22-7 at home.


Rested, Ready, and Momentum
The Colorado Avalanche is coming off a 4-1 win as a money line road underdog of +180 at Chicago on Friday. The win was their third in the last four games. Sunday will be Colorado’s fifth at home in their previous six games overall. The Avalanche should certainly be the fresher of the two teams in tonight’s game. They’ve also been able to generate some much needed offense of late, scoring three goals or more in five of their previous six games. Colorado lost at Tampa Bay 3-2 in the only meeting this season between these teams. Despite that loss, the Avalanche held a territorial edge in that game by mustering 42-shots on goal compared to 31 by Tampa Bay.

This Capper Also Brings You His Picks on the Totals for Tonight's Matchups

NHL Money Line Angle
Tampa Bay is coming off two consecutive road wins by scores of 4-2 versus the Arizona Coyotes, and 4-1 against the Anaheim Ducks. Tampa Bay possesses a stellar .607 winning percentage during this 2014-2015 NHL campaign heading into tonight’s game. The aforementioned data creates a very favorable money line betting angle which favors the home underdog in this exact situation. I’m going to exploit the sportsbooks with that valuable handicapping asset when making my NHL picks on Sunday.

Any home team (Colorado) playing in the second half of the season, versus an opponent that’s coming off road wins by two goals or more in each of their previous two games, and they possess a winning percentage of .600 to .700, has seen the home team go 47-20 (65.3%) against the money line since 1996.

NHL Pick: Colorado +105 over Tampa Bay at BetOnline.

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