Bet Maple Leafs +130 over Lighting in your NHL Picks

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, February 6, 2014 4:21 PM GMT

The Lightning host the Maple Leafs on Thursday at the Tampa Bay Times Forum with the opening faceoff slated for 7:35 PM ET. Join our handicapper as he finds the value in this match-up and nails down our NHL picks.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

According to NHL betting odds Tampa Bay is a -150 money line home favorite and the posted total is 5.5. The home team has won the last 5 meetings between these clubs. These teams have seen just 1 of their last 6 meetings go over the total.

Bounce Back Spot for the Leafs

The Leafs are coming off a disappointing performance in a 4-1 road loss to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday. The loss snapped a 3-game Toronto win streak. Despite the loss the Leafs have won 9 of their last 12-games. They’ve also scored 4-goals or more in 8 of their last 11 outings. The Leafs have gone under the total in just 3 of their last 19-games overall. The Leafs will need to solve their woes on the road. Toronto has gone just 5-15 versus the money line in their last 20 away games. They enter tonight tied for 3rd in the Atlantic Division, and 4th overall in the Eastern Conference.

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Showing no Signs of Fading

Tampa Bay has been one of the bigger surprises if not the biggest in the NHL this season. While many experts have been waiting for the Lightning to hit the proverbial wall they haven’t done so, and they show little if any signs of that occurring anytime soon. They enter today 2nd in the Atlantic Division just 6-points behind the 1st place Boston Bruins, and are 3rd overall in the Eastern Conference. They’ve been stuck in neutral over the last 6-weeks going 9-10 versus the money line over the last 19-games, which is hardly a cause for concern. In the Lightning’s defense they’ve played 12 of their last 17-games on the road, including a recently completed 4-game in 8-day road trip. Tampa has been rock solid on home ice this season going 16-9 versus the money line, and earning at least 1-point in 19 of those 25-games.

NHL Betting System

Let's take a look at some money line statistics before you make our NHL picks. Any money line road underdog of between +100 to +150 that’s playing in the 2nd half of the season, and they have a -0.2 or worse goal per game differential in the 3rd period on the season, in addition to allowing 2 or more goals in the 3rd period of their previous game, has gone 33-20 (62.3%) over the last 5 seasons.

Free Pick: Toronto +130 over Tampa Bay

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