Avalanche vs. Lightning NHL Picks: Struggling Stanley Cup Favorites Clash

The Tampa Bay Lightning (2-2) and Colorado Avalanche (1-3) are struggling but remain Stanley Cup favorites ahead of Saturday's marquee battle.

The Avalanche have dropped three straight games with all losses coming by a margin of two or more goals, including a 4-1 home loss against the Florida Panthers on Thursday. The Lightning took a 4-1 road loss to the Panthers Tuesday but enter Saturday’s game with the home and rest advantages.

Colorado covered the puck line in just one of four games, while Tampa Bay is 0-4 against the spread. The Avs are 2-1-1 against the Over/Under, and the Bolts are 2-2 against projected totals.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s NHL matchup between the Avalanche and Lightning (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Avalanche vs. Lightning Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, October 23, 7 p.m. ETTV: BSSUN, ALTLocation: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Avalanche vs. Lightning Odds Analysis

The Avalanche are underdogs for their second game in a row amid the losing skid. The Lightning are getting one of their more profitable moneyline prices with a modest implied win probability of 53.49 percent. Tampa Bay is laying the goal and a half on the puck line but hasn’t won by two or more goals yet.

The Lightning fell short of 6 combined goals in each of their last two games. The Avalanche were 2-0-1 against the number before falling shy of an inflated 7-goal total Thursday against the Panthers.

Avalanche vs. Lightning Picks

Lightning (-115)Under 6 (-105)First goal (excluding overtime): Lightning (-115)

Avalanche vs. Lightning Predictions

Lightning (-115)

The Avalanche were held to just a single goal by the Panthers on Thursday, and they gave up at least four goals for the third straight game. The Lightning combined for just three goals in their last two contests with one of those serving as an OT winner against the Washington Capitals a week ago.

Tampa Bay has the analytic edge with a 52.55 percent Corsi For rating at 5-on-5. Colorado has registered 50 percent of the total shot attempts at full strength. Despite the possession metrics, both teams have negative goal differentials with Colorado at minus-6 and Tampa Bay at minus-5.

The Lightning also have advantages in both the power play and penalty kill. They have three goals in 15 chances with the man advantage, and the Avs are a lowly 1-for-14 on the power play. Both sides have given up 13 power-play chances to their opponents with the Bolts allowing two goals to the Avs’ three.

Back the reigning Stanley Cup champs at a relatively attractive moneyline price for this matchup. We can expect both sides to get back on track sooner than later, but the rest and home advantages for the Lightning further hinder the slumping Avs.

Under 6 (-105)

Colorado’s two Over results this season required the Capitals to score six goals Tuesday and the St. Louis Blues to score five times the game before. Tampa Bay hit the Over in a 6-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, and a sloppy 7-6 overtime win against the Detroit Red Wings.

Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon has two assists through two games since returning to the lineup from COVID-19 protocols. The Lightning remain without their best player with RW Nikita Kucherov (lower body) on long-term injured reserve.

Lightning G Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled to a .893 save percentage and 3.22 goals against average while starting all four games. He stopped just 20 of 26 shots in the win against the Red Wings but rebounded well against the Capitals. The extended rest should have the former Vezina Trophy winner back in form.

We’ll go with the more profitable side of this line and fade two of the NHL’s most exciting offenses. The Avs will want to focus on defense in order to get back in the win column and will show some improvements in Saturday’s marquee battle.

First goal (excluding overtime): Lightning (-115)

The Lightning haven’t opened the scoring yet this season, while the Avalanche drew first blood only when storming out to a 3-0 lead in their season opener against the Chicago Blackhawks.

Tampa Bay is 0-2 at Amalie Arena since raising its second straight Stanley Cup banner but will get on track Saturday. The home side will start strong with the rest advantage. 

Consider this as a partial hedge to the moneyline play on Tampa Bay. The Lightning’s first-period moneyline (+175) is also in play.

Picks made on 10/23/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET.