Avalanche & Jets Subpar Defenses Make 'Over' an Appetizing NHL Pick

David Lawrence

Monday, November 23, 2015 5:39 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 23, 2015 5:39 PM GMT

Monday’s matchup between the Jets and Colorado Avalanche features the two worst teams in the Central. Yet, let's review the NHL odds to make profits from this game.

Momentum
The Jets have won two straight games, but it’s mostly been a sour month for them. They entered November with a record of 7-3-1 and were starting to convince people that they were a young team on the rise. Then they started the month with losses in seven of their first eight games and everyone realized this team is not really worth its salt. They’re the same old inconsistent Jets. When they get reasonable goaltending, they can compete. When the wheels fall off, they can’t compete. The good news is it seems to be back on track as they’ve won two in a row.

As for the Avs, they’re virtually in the same camp. They’ve lost three straight while giving up an average of 5.3 goals per game. Prior to that, they had won three straight while giving up a total of one goal per outing. Reto Berra has been starting for the team and that’s led to some inconsistency.

 

Projected Starting Goalies
With Semyon Varlamov still dealing with a groin injury and Ondrej Pavelec leaving the Jets game on Saturday, it definitely looks like we’ll be seeing the backups in this spot.

For the Avs, that means Berra. On the season, he has a 2.43 GAA, .923 save percentage and a 4-6 record. As mentioned, he’s been really up and down. He’s been mostly good as he’s allowed two goals or less in seven of his 11 starts but the problem is the other four starts: he’s allowed four goals in each of them. He’s either playing really well or really hampering the Avs.

As for Hutchinson, he tends to play very similar to Pavelec. In other words, he’s unreliable. He has a 2.69 GAA on the season and .915 save percentage. He’s allowed three goals or more in four of his starts and allowed allows less than three in his other four outings. That’s what makes the Jets team a tough team to trust.

Must Read: NHL Picks for Tonight's Slate

Outlook
The Jets are laying too high a number here on the NHL odds to trust them. They’ve been hot and cold all season long, which is typical for them, but they’re now on the colder end of the spectrum. As for the Avs, they’re also cold and enter on a three-game losing streak.

With the odds on the favorite being too high, I’m going to bet on the over. Berra has been struggling in net and his last four starts have averaged 7.5 goals per game. As for the Jets, their games are averaging 5.9 goals per game this month. Playing the total with my NHL picks seems a little more enticing than the side. Take the over in this one.

Free NHL Pick: Over 5.5 at Bovada

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