Avalanche vs. Blues Game 3 NHL Picks: St. Louis Looks to Take Series Lead at Home

The St. Louis Blues stole Game 2 in Colorado and head back home with the series tied. Can the underdog Blues take a 2-1 series lead at home, or will the powerhouse Avalanche rebound? Check out our Avalanche-Blues picks.

Colorado cruised through the first round with a sweep against the Nashville Predators. However, the Avalanche are now facing some adversity against the Blues. St. Louis forced overtime in Game 1 and took Game 2 in Colorado to go back home with a 1-1 series tie.

Blues goalie Jordan Binnington has been a big part of the team's success. He made 51 saves on 54 shots in the overtime loss and 30 saves on 31 shots in the victory. He's 4-1 with nine goals against (164 saves on 173 shots) in five starts in these playoffs.

The Avalanche outshot the Blues 54-25 in Game 1, but St. Louis coach Craig Berube adjusted and both teams had 31 shots in Game 2. Saturday marks a crucial Game 3 for the Stanley Cup favorite Avalanche.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday's Game 3 showdown between the Avalanche and Blues (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

SEE ALSO: NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Series Lines and Picks

Avalanche vs. Blues Game Info

Date: Saturday, May 21, 8:00 p.m. ETTV: TNT, CBC, TVAS, SNLocation: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

Avalanche vs. Blues Odds Analysis

After being home favorites of over -200 in the first two games, the Avalanche are down to -160 at DraftKings on the road after opening at -182. The Blues are the home underdogs at as high as +140 after a +150 opening. Colorado has received just over half of the tickets but a large portion of the handle for Game 3.

The total opened at 6.5 and hasn’t budged. You can get Over 6.5 (-115) at DraftKings and Under 6.5 (+100) at BetMGM. Interestingly, the Under has received more tickets while the Over has more of the handle.

Avalanche vs. Blues Picks

Avalanche (-160 via DraftKings) ????Under 6.5 (+100 via BetMGM) ???Ryan O’Reilly to score (+240 via FanDuel) ??

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Avalanche vs. Blues Predictions

Avalanche (-160)

The Blues were able to grind their way to a win in Game 2. Berube had his team playing more defensively sound to take away shots from high-danger areas.

The Avalanche had more shot attempts (47-37) at five-on-five with both teams getting 27 shots. However, the Blues had 21 scoring chances (nine of the high-danger variety) to the Avalanche’s 13 scoring chances (three high-danger). That led to a huge disparity in expected goals (2.07-0.95) and that translated directly to the 2-0 goal differential at five-on-five.

Though St. Louis is more battle-tested with some of its players still on the roster from the 2019 Cup-winning team, Colorado is simply a more-talented squad. The Avs rolled through the first round and have still won seven of the last nine meetings between these two teams.

Colorado’s best players haven’t been playing near the top of their game yet in this series. Home-ice advantage shouldn't move the line by more than 40 cents, so I’m backing the superior team here once again at Avalanche -160.

Under 6.5 (+100)

There have been only 10 goals scored through two games, with five in each contest (including an empty-netter in Game 2). The Blues know how to simplify things in the playoffs, and the second round is featuring a lot of low-scoring games.

The Avalanche tried to play their run-and-gun style in Game 1 and still scored just three times. They got frustrated in Game 2 and know they need to win at any cost in Game 3, even if that means playing a straightforward game.

Binnington is showing his playoff prowess in this series after rescuing the Blues in the first round. Darcy Kuemper hasn’t been bad, either. Given the first two games and how playoff hockey tends to be lower-scoring, I’ll happily take the even money on the Under 6.5.

O’Reilly goal (+240)

O’Reilly is a big-game player, and he’s showing that in the playoffs. He has a goal in six of eight playoff games, including in Game 1 in Colorado. In fact, he’s scored a goal in all three home playoff games and in eight of his last 10 games overall (starting with a two-goal performance against Colorado in the regular season).

The Blues captain knows how to lead by example, and that includes putting pucks in the back of the net.

Where to Bet on Avalanche-Blues Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Avalanche-Blues picks made on 5/20/2022 at 10:48 p.m. ET.